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Economy shrinks for third quarter in a row
The economy shrank for the third time in a row last quarter. The Netherlands therefore meets the definition of a recession, Chief Economist of CBS Peter Hein van Mulligen indicates in a video presentation. But while jobs usually disappear during a recession, the number of jobs actually increased. However, the labor market became slightly less tight because more people started looking for work.
Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 2023% in the third quarter of 0,2 compared to the previous quarter, Statistics Netherlands reports. Compared to the third quarter of 2022, the economy shrank 0,6%.
Peter Hein van Mulligen: "If an economy shrinks for two quarters in a row, economists often call this a recession. With three quarters of shrinkage, the Netherlands meets that definition. The last time the Netherlands shrank for three quarters in a row was during the financial crisis of 2008 and 2009. During a recession, many jobs often disappear. But that was not the case now. Jobs were actually created: 31.000 to be precise." The number of people looking for a job also increased, resulting in more unemployed people.
The contraction did slow down last quarter, with GDP falling by 0,5% and 0,4% in the first and second quarters of this year. The cause of the contraction of the economy in the third quarter can mainly be sought in less investment in fixed assets (particularly means of transport, machines and buildings). There was also inventory withdrawal, while there was inventory build-up in the second quarter. Government consumption increased by 0,6%. Household consumption remained the same.
Exports of goods and services fell 1,6% compared to the previous quarter. Imports fell faster, by 2,3%, resulting in a positive trade balance.
The added value (difference between production and consumption of energy, materials and services) fell in the third quarter in just under half of the industries. The energy companies and the culture and recreation branch showed the largest decline. The added value of agriculture actually increased slightly. Last quarter there was a clear decline in agriculture, forestry and fishing. Industry, like the economy, is shrinking for the third quarter in a row, as are trade, transport and the catering industry.
The EU economy is growing
The European Union economy grew slightly (+0,1%). Germany's GDP fell by 0,1% in the third quarter. In Belgium and France, the economy grew by 0,5% and 0,1% respectively compared to the second quarter. The British economy neither grew nor fell. Statistics Netherlands reports that compared to the fourth quarter of pre-corona year 2019, the recovery of the Dutch economy is stronger than that of neighboring countries and the EU on average, but that the difference has become smaller. The US economy grew faster than that of the EU, by 1,2%.
Household consumption decreases in September
Consumption by households remained the same last quarter compared to the previous quarter, but new figures for September (which CBS also published today) show that households purchased 1,9% fewer goods and services last month than in a year. earlier. The first year-on-year decline after March 2021, according to Statistics Netherlands.
The statistics office recently reported that the sales volume of non-food stores in September was 6,4% lower on an annual basis and that of food stores was 2,1% lower. There are no figures for October yet, but according to the CBS consumption radar, 'conditions for consumption in October were almost as unfavorable as in September'.
Goods exports fall in September
New figures also show that goods exports (volume) fell 2022% last month compared to September 4,8. This included fewer chemical products, food and beverages and electronic machines. Goods imports were 7,2% smaller. According to the CBS Export Radar, conditions for exports were less unfavorable in November than in September.
Linda van Eekeres
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