The start of the heating season has not yet resulted in higher prices. So far, several windfalls such as favorable weather, a good supply and less impact of the war between Hamas and Israel are putting pressure on prices.
The gas market is currently fairly stable. On Wednesday, November 8, gas traded for €45,78 per megawatt hour. A day later (on Thursday, November 9), the gas price was at the highest point of the week, at €48,13. After that, the price fluctuated between €46 and €48.
The weather remains favorable to the European gas market. It appears that the weather will not change much in the near future. It will remain relatively warm in the coming weeks with temperatures of around 10 degrees or higher. The expectation is that the heating will have to work less hard than usual for the time being. In addition, a fair amount of wind is expected, which will reduce the demand for gas to generate electricity. Wind force 3 is expected to be the minimum in November and wind force 5 is expected at times.
The offer also continues reasonably well. The gas reserves are 99,8% full and LNG deliveries are going well and prices do not appear to be rising. Data agency Kpler expects that European imports from the United States will increase from 9,5 million tons to 10,12 million tons. Although demand from Asia is also increasing, analysts believe that price increases are not possible in the short term. Export prices from the United States (the Netherlands' main exporter) are currently around $16,50 per mmBtu and are declining slightly. At the beginning of September these prices were still above $25.
Impact Israel limited
Finally, Chevron reported that it had resumed gas deliveries from the Tamar field on Monday, November 13. The company expects capacity to be fully restored within a few days. The reopening comes as no surprise. Production had been halted as a precaution, as the gas field is only 25 kilometers from the Gaza Strip and could be hit by Hamas rockets. However, small volumes were reported flowing through the pipelines in the last two weeks.
About 20% of Israeli gas is generally exported to Egypt and Jordan. Due to the problems surrounding Tamar, gas from the main export field, the Leviathan field, was mainly used for internal consumption. Various sources report that exports to Egypt are currently around 60% again. This is a positive sign for the global LNG market. As a rule, Egypt is a net LNG exporter, but in recent months Egypt has been struggling with shortages. Now that Egypt is receiving gas from Israel again, there is a growing chance that Egypt will get things back in order.