Analysis Elections
Nitrogen policy with PVV on the agenda, livestock farming vague
With the election of November 21, the voter turned the entire political landscape upside down. The PVV has become by far the largest party, while a coalition on the right is now the most obvious option. It is difficult to predict exactly what this means for agriculture, but sacred houses will be destroyed and perhaps (savings) pots will also be broken open.
The nitrogen policy of recent years will almost certainly change dramatically. If only because so many billions are linked to it. Geert Wilders and his fellow party members do not see a nitrogen problem. The climate problem is also not high on his priority list.
Livestock farming and animal love
This does not mean that there will no longer be a cloud in the sky for livestock farming in particular. Wilder's long-time party colleague and fellow Limburger Dion Graus is often surprisingly close to the PvdD in terms of views on livestock farming and animal welfare, and the wolf has a special place in his heart. Graus - even though he is now slightly lower in the rankings than in previous years (place 14) and colleague Edgar Mulder is higher (place 8) - can still provide quite a few surprises. Graus has quite a reputation, so to speak, and can be quite unpredictable.
In addition to the PVV, the VVD, NSC and BBB – the most logical candidates for a coalition on the right – also want to approach the nitrogen problem differently. Just like the other tasks that the Netherlands must tackle 'from Brussels' in the field of water and climate. But there is often a long distance between wanting and being able to do so. It is not yet entirely clear what they would like to do with livestock farming.
Security cordon broken
It is also not yet certain that there will be a coalition on the right. The so-called 'security cordon' surrounding the PVV has been broken, because various parties no longer want to exclude the party as a cooperation partner. However, that does not say everything. There have been parties that have won elections before, but still lost their formation.
A next 'middle coalition' or coalition on the left does not seem obvious now. This gives the greatest chance of a continuation in broad terms of the past Rutte cabinets, and the voter really does not seem to want that at the moment. Moreover, a truly left-wing bloc can no longer obtain a majority in the House of Representatives.
Self-examination and finger-pointing
Moreover, yesterday is not everything. It is quite possible that now, after the elections, a few more scores will be settled. Since the first indications yesterday that a major shift in the political field of power was coming, self-examination and finger-pointing have started among the losers. That can still lead to accidents. The easiest (and safest) is to point to other parties or politicians. For example, D66 and GroenLinks/PvdA were quick to say that the VVD had opened the door to Wilders.
The heart of Wilders
The left is also now insisting that Wilders may have sounded more moderate lately, but in his heart he is really not. While on the other hand, according to some media, left-wing leaders would now, after the votes, suddenly sound much more natural than they did before. And with the suggestion: if only they had done this earlier.
BBB goes for LNV bonus
Whatever happens, agriculture will have to deal with many new faces and plans. The BBB has become smaller than first expected, but is still expected to have 7 seats in the House of Representatives. Caroline van der Plas also counts on the party becoming part of a new coalition. Also because she has a large power bloc in the Senate. She is already claiming the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality as a bonus for her contribution. In addition to Van der Plas, former CBS member Cor Pierik will be the most famous agricultural face.
Not everyone safe
At New Social Contract, Harm Holman seems to have been narrowly elected with place number 20 on the list. At the SGP, André Flach comes in at number 3 as agricultural spokesperson, at the Christian Union Pieter Grinwis (number 2 on the list) remains on board, despite the number of seats being halved. The CDA also has to make do with a strongly thinned club (from 15 to 5), but agriculture spokesperson Eline Vedder is safely in place number 2.
The same cannot entirely be said about Tjeerd de Groot at D66. He seems to be returning to the House of Representatives, but could also be left out. The agricultural faces Laura Bromet and Joris Thijssen, known from GroenLinks/PvdA, are back in a safe place, as are outgoing nitrogen minister Christianne van der Wal and agriculture spokesperson Thom van Campen at the VVD.
Klaas van der Horst
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