The elections have taken place, the results are now known, but it will take until December 6 before the new House of Representatives is installed. From then on, it will take some time to get used to it and the new House may not yet be sharp on everything, also because the various factions do not want to create facts that could be an obstacle to the upcoming coalition formation. So don't expect that people will immediately attack each other too hard.
It all still leaves some room for the old, outgoing cabinet to leave behind some fait accompli. For example, about the European Nature Restoration Act, which Minister Van der Wal actually does would like to approve, now that at first glance the sharpest edges have been removed. She previously arranged a nature permit for Schiphol during this politically windless period - with the support of the entire cabinet. And so far no one in the House of Representatives has raised the alarm about this obvious double standard towards the agricultural sector.
Buy now, pay later
For the agricultural sector, the compromise that Van der Wal now wants to agree to is not easy at all, warn LTO Nederland, Agractie and other agricultural parties. The reason: the compromise has all the trappings of a purchase from a dubious mail order company: agree now, be disappointed later. The longer-term obligations remain firmly in place. It is therefore similar in design official 'non-paper' that Van der Wal announced a week earlier as a way out of the KDW problem. However, the compromise proposal on the European Nature Restoration Act is more weighty. It will be a European agreement.
Science helps politics
Also official and official-scientific (via policy-supporting research at WUR, WEenR, RIVM and CBS) to tie up Dutch livestock farming. It's here been discussed earlier. The Dutch agricultural sector has always been strong, even a global leader, thanks to its innovative power. This is because she achieved greater returns from one kilo of input, managed to achieve fewer emissions per animal and was generally able to work more (environmentally) efficiently than abroad. In recent years, gains in these areas have not or cannot be recorded because the Netherlands must adhere to international key figures. These often also represent international mediocrity, even if these are key figures that have been established in authoritative bodies such as the IPCC.
Mandatory six for the leader
This is where the shoe pinches enormously for Dutch agriculture. It still scores an 8, 9 or 10 in many areas, but needs to score a six to keep up internationally. For example, unfavorable calculation factors are linked to the Kringloopwijzer, feed losses are booked too high and efficiency gains in milk production are not taken into account. This must be done because the climate and the environment are said to benefit from it.
Double ministry care
It remains to be seen how this game will play out. It is clear that officials at the dual ministry of LNV and Nature and Nitrogen are also becoming concerned now that the wind may be blowing differently. During a discussion this week at the agricultural fair in Gorinchem, Director General of Rural Area Transition Johan Osinga expressed his concern that everything could change again or become different. He wants to move on, but to what end?
Weary
Nowadays, quite a few farmers, especially livestock farmers, seem quite dull due to all the regulations that hinder them, the accompanying rhetoric and declining margins. Have almost a thousand registered until December 29th for one of the two national stopper schemes. That's not a final agreement, but it does reflect some of the mood.
Center-left cabinet, center-right Chamber
The big question is whether, depending on the formation, there is still enough money left for all the nitrogen plans of the old cabinet. Despite the snags, a formation on the right still seems the most obvious. If things change, the elections could turn out to be very disappointing for agriculture. Then VVD and NSC (instead of the CDA) will govern together with GroenLinks/PvdA (in the role of D66). D66 will remain active from the House, although this will most likely be without Tjeerd de Groot.
There is a chance that on balance not much will change, at least in terms of government. What remains is a majority center-right House of Representatives and a ditto voting public. This probably means that the tensions of recent years will remain intact. It could be the recipe for an even bigger PVV in the next election round. This is reminiscent of the scenario with the mail order company.