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The US pig herd is at a tipping point

5 January 2024 - Matthijs Bremer

The American fattening pig herd has remained stable, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). However, a shrinking sow herd does indicate a decline in the future. 

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The American fattening pig herd remained approximately stable. Compared to last year, there has been a slight increase, but compared to September 1, 2023, the pig herd has decreased slightly. The United States currently has 69 million porkers. There does seem to be a prelude to a contraction. The size of the sow herd has decreased by 3% compared to last year, to 6 million sows. This is a recent development, as the pig herd has also fallen by 1% compared to September 3.

This should not be surprising, according to data from Iowa State University, pig farmers make an average loss of $32 per pig. The university expects the market to be slightly better in 2024, but roughly speaking, the university expects pig farmers to lose $18 per pig this year as well. The underlying cause of this is domestic demand. Due to a sharp increase in consumer prices, US demand for pork fell by as much as 2023% in 10.

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