The gas market remains in stable waters. Despite lower demand due to various factors, the TTF is unable to find the downward price. In the meantime, the remarkably high wind power for the year has again resulted in a lower electricity price this week.
The gas price remains fairly stable. On Tuesday, July 2, gas traded for €33,69 per megawatt hour. On Wednesday, July 3, the gas price was at the last point of the week, at €32,69. The price then rose again to €33,60 on Monday, July 8.
On the gas market, low demand and various risks keep each other in check. Basically, calm prevails on the gas market. After months of disruptions, gas on the Norwegian market is now flowing faster than average to the European market. In addition, temperatures remain mild, which means that the demand for gas to generate electricity for air conditioning remains low. In addition, European gas reserves are 78,8% full. That is no less than 14,4 percentage points above the average.
The pace at which stocks are replenished remains lower than average. The pace has been slow for most of the filling season. In the last seven days for which data is known, the pace of filling was 15,8% lower than average. This is reasonably in line with the filling rate in June. In that month, the gas supply was replenished 15,3% slower than average. This slow pace did not go unnoticed. This week, the Dutch Gas Union expressed its concerns for the first time about the speed at which reserves are being replenished.
Risks prevent decline
On the other hand, real lighting remains absent. This is partly due to Hurricane Beryl. The hurricane causes a lower LNG supply on the American market. The hurricane moved from Mexico to the north of the country on Monday, July 8. Beryl is currently sweeping across the Caribbean and has already killed eleven people. Due to the hurricane, the activities of several ports in the state have been halted. This also applies to the activities in the large LNG upload facility Freeport LNG. The facility has now adjusted its capacity downwards. Because Europe has become the most important sales market for the United States, the inactivity of the large facility directly affects the European market.
In addition, the Asian LNG price has peaked, but not enough to ensure calm on the market. High temperatures still cause high demand. On Tuesday, July 2, LNG traded at $12,56 per mbtu. According to the last available bar quote on Friday, July 5, LNG was trading at $12,49 per mbtu. That's 25 cents less than the peak on June 25, when LNG prices were $12,75 per mbtu.
Electricity price unstable
The electricity price was quite unstable last week. At the beginning of the week the price was quite high. Especially on Wednesday, July 3, high prices were paid for electricity. That day the price rose to €94,46 per megawatt hour. After that, the price took a step down. At the low point on Saturday, July 6, the price was even negative. On that day the price fell to -€4,09 per megawatt hour.
Wind energy was leading on the electricity market this week. Usually a lot of solar power is generated in the summer, but the wind power is on the low side. However, the wet 2024 has so far been accompanied by extra wind. That was the case again this week. The share of wind energy in the power mix was greater than the share of solar energy this week. In total, 31,9% of all electricity was generated by solar panels. Wind had a combined share of 34,9% in the energy mix. This is favorable for the electricity price, as wind is generally more constant than sun, which constantly puts pressure on the price. The share of the most expensive fuel, natural gas, fell to 21,6%.
On days when there was strong wind, the price shot down. On Friday, for example, there was an almost constant production of wind energy of at least 5,5 gigawatts, with peaks of around 7 gigawatts. Production was slightly lower on Thursday and Saturday, but the sun also shone brightly. This resulted in 25 hours with a negative electricity price. Due to a combination of strong sun and wind and low weekend demand, the price even fell to -€15 per megawatt hour between 00:16 PM and 00:116,61 PM.