Oil prices have fallen 5% CHECK over the past week. Two major factors are currently affecting the Brent benchmark: the ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip and the weak Chinese economy.
Brent oil stood at $15 per barrel a week ago, on Thursday, August 81,04. Since that day, a sharp decline has started, coming to a halt on Wednesday (August 21) and stabilizing at $76,01. The benchmark for Brent oil has therefore fallen by 6,2% in a week.
Iran's threatened retaliation for the assassination of Hamas's political leader in Tehran at the end of July has faded into the background. Hopes are pinned on negotiations on a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel.
However, it is far from certain that the parties will reach an agreement now. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has returned home from the Middle East without a deal. Israel has accepted a bridge proposal, but the question is whether Hamas will do so too. According to Blinken, the agreement, in which Qatar and Egypt are mediating, should be completed in the coming days.
In addition to the peace negotiations in the Middle East, lower global demand continues to depress oil prices. The weak Chinese economy is mainly to blame for this. US oil inventories unexpectedly rose slightly in week 33 (until August 16). The American Petroleum Institute (API) reports an increase of 347.000 barrels, while oil supplies were expected to fall by 2,8 million barrels.
In the US, the market is looking forward to the speech that the chairman of the US central bank will give tomorrow (August 23) during the annual symposium for central bankers from around the world in Jackson Hole. It is expected that Jay Powell will give hints about how quickly and by how much the Fed will cut interest rates.
Production restrictions likely to be maintained
According to analysts, it is increasingly looking like OPEC+ will maintain its production cuts in the last quarter of this year. There was talk that production would increase again in October, but with the current lower price, OPEC countries will be more inclined to support the price. Much also remains dependent on how the situation develops in the Middle East.
Diesel price
Diesel has fallen in price last week. Where last week you had to pay around €126 for 100 liters of diesel, this is now around €122. That is the lowest level since early July 2023.