US milk supply down, bird flu still on the rise

Milk supplies in the United States remained below last year's levels in July. At 8,24 million tons, production was 0,2% smaller in the 24 largest dairy states. The graph shows that this difference compared to last year is starting to become slightly smaller. The five-year average for July is 8,25 million tons, which means that the supply for July 2024 is somewhat below. July 2023 was just above the five-year average with 8,26 million tons.

Overall, milk production from January to July 2024 was 57,97 million tonnes in the top 24 dairy states. In the same period of 2023, milk production amounted to 58,12 million tons.

Production per cow is increasing. In the 24 largest dairy states, average production per cow was approximately 928,5 kilos. That is about 0,91 kilos above the level of July last year. The number of dairy cows decreased. In the 24 largest dairy states, this number fell by 31.000 cows compared to July last year, to a total of 8,88 million. However, the number of cows has increased month on month. Compared to June, there were 3.000 more dairy cows in July.

The US Department of Agriculture has also tinkered with the June figures and adjusted them further downwards by 62.140 tons, or by 0,8% compared to the previous expectation. This means that milk production in June 2024 is still 1,5% lower than in June 2023. This means that the milk supply in that month was lower than previously thought. It is not entirely clear why the milk supply was previously estimated to be higher. This also makes it uncertain whether we can expect the same revision for July.

Bird flu virus update
It is unclear whether the June revision is related to the prevalent bird flu virus in American dairy cattle. This is not immediately apparent from the figures for the number of dairy cows and production per cow was also higher than last year. The number of farms infected with bird flu now stands at 191 in thirteen states, as reported by the US CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention). In the last thirty days, most reported infections came from the state of Colorado with eighteen infected herds. In addition, Texas, Idaho, South Dakota and Michigan reported new infections. Since the start of the outbreak, most reports have come from Colorado (64).

Four people have been infected through dairy cows. The number of infections via poultry has risen to ten. The New York Times reported yesterday critically about the virus, which now, six months later, does not seem to be backing down. Fundamental insights are said to be lacking and there is a lot of uncertainty, including about the current measures.