The gas price seemed to fall last week, but the movement of the TTF quickly reversed. In particular, the news that Ukraine would not export gas from Azerbaijan to the European Union after all, caused the price to rise again. Meanwhile, the electricity price shows roughly the same pattern as last week.
The price of gas has largely corrected after a decline. On Tuesday 17 September, gas was traded for €35,55 per megawatt hour. On Thursday 19 September, the gas price fell to €33,08. On Monday 23 September, the price was again €35,25.
A major reason for the drop in gas prices early last week was the pressure that arose on the market after the story went around that Ukraine had reached a deal with Azerbaijan. It would concern deliveries of gas to the European Union after an existing five-year contract with Russia to transport gas via that country to the EU expires. Ukraine is not prepared to extend the deal due to the war. This is the last pipeline that transports gas via Russia to the European Union. However, on Thursday 19 September it turned out that the earlier reports were not correct. A source from the Azerbaijani Ministry of Energy indicated that not only is there no deal on the table, but that there were also no meaningful negotiations.
On top of that, colder weather is expected later this month. According to some analysts, European consumption could rise to around 8 million cubic meters per day. In the meantime, the situation on the LNG market also remains tense. Analysts indicate that it is completely unclear which direction the LNG market will take this winter. A downward movement is clearly visible on the Asian market, although prices are still high. On Thursday, September 19, the price briefly reached its lowest point since early August. That day, LNG was traded for €12,83 per MMBtu. This puts the LNG price roughly at the level of the rest of the summer, but still considerably higher than last winter.
Supply Norwegian supply recovers
On the other hand, supply from Norway was less disrupted than expected. In the middle of the week, supply from the country reached its lowest point in seven weeks. Supply fell from 235,3 million cubic meters per day to 166,8 million cubic meters in the middle of the week. In practice, the disruption was very short-lived. On Thursday, September 19, supply rose again to 219,7 million cubic meters per day.
Electricity price stable
Meanwhile, the electricity price is quite stable, except for the quotation of Monday 23 September. Last week, the electricity price was constantly between €80,97 and €69,50 per megawatt hour. On Monday 23 September, however, the price rose considerably, to €113,38.
The tone on the electricity market was again largely set this week by production from renewable sources. The pattern of generation from renewable sources was roughly the same as in recent weeks. During the week, the considerable generation of solar power and wind energy coincided, which caused prices to fall considerably. As in previous weeks, the summer weather caused the generation of wind energy to fall during the weekend, which meant that prices hardly fell despite significantly lower industrial demand.
On Monday, the situation is very similar to last week. Just like last week, it is calm but sunny. This ensures that prices during office hours are relatively low. However, there is a difference. This week, high electricity prices in Germany and Denmark are pushing Dutch electricity prices up a bit, as the Netherlands exports significant amounts of electricity to those countries. This is particularly noticeable early in the evening. At that time, demand is higher, as many people come home and turn on appliances. Meanwhile, the supply of solar power is actually decreasing. As a result, the demand for gas to generate electricity is increasing significantly.