That the world will no longer be dependent on fossil fuels by the middle of this century is, if you believe OPEC, a utopia. The oil cartel has published a long-term vision. In it, demand will increase to 120,1 million barrels per day in 2050. That is 17,9 million barrels more per day than in 2023. Although the number of electric cars is increasing faster, according to the forecast, 25% of road traffic will still run on fossil fuels in 70 years.
The oil price has recovered from the dip below $70. On Wednesday afternoon, September 25, the Brent benchmark is again well above the $74,53 threshold below which it dipped on September 70, at $10. However, the price of the fuel is not rising very fast. The entire period between mid-December 2023 and September, oil was higher.
There are several factors that support the price. For example, tensions in the Middle East are increasing. Furthermore, the central banks of both the United States and China have taken measures that should provide oxygen to the economies of the countries concerned. Last week, the American central bank lowered the interest rate not by 25 but by 50 basis points. The larger interest rate step is expected to give the American economy a boost and thus also the demand for oil.
The Chinese central bank came up with a broad support package to support the country's weak economy. The stimulus measures were presented on Tuesday, September 24. They are the most far-reaching measures since the corona pandemic. For example, the interest rate for short-term loans is being lowered, Chinese banks are required to hold less money in reserves and there are measures to stimulate the stock and real estate markets. However, analysts doubt whether this will be enough to get the economy growing again by 5%, as is the goal. The oil price also fell slightly after the presentation.
What is having a bullish effect on the oil price is the tension in the Middle East, which has been rising since Hezbollah members' beepers and walkie-talkies exploded last Tuesday. Shelling is taking place on both sides and Israeli airstrikes on Beirut have killed more than 550 people, according to Lebanon. There are fears that the war is spreading across the region.
Next storm heading for Gulf of Mexico
According to figures from the American Petroleum Institute (API), crude oil inventories in the US fell by 4 million barrels last week, considerably more than the 0,9 million expected by the market.
The US continues to face production problems. While the oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico were largely back in operation after the passage of Hurricane Francine, another tropical storm (Helene, which threatens to become a hurricane) is already on its way to the area. Four of the 371 manned oil platforms in the Gulf of Mexico have currently been evacuated as a precaution, according to the US Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE). 16,21% of oil production is at a standstill.
According to OPEC, 2050% of the world will still run on fossil fuels in 70
OPEC published a long-term vision, the World Oil Outlook 24, on Tuesday, September 2050. According to the forecast, the global vehicle fleet will increase from 2050 billion in 1,7 to 2023 billion by 2,9. The outlook assumes that despite the rise of electric vehicles, traditional combustion engines will still account for more than 2050% of road transport in 70.
The oil cartel expects global oil demand to reach 2029 million barrels per day in 112,3, up 10,1 million barrels from 2023. By 2050, total oil demand is expected to reach 120,1 million barrels per day. OPEC also predicts that the Middle East’s share of global oil exports (nearly 49% in 2023) will decline slightly by 2030, only to increase further to 58% in 2050.
Diesel price
Diesel costs €119,54 per 100 litres. This means that the diesel price continues its upward trend. Last week the price was €118,70 per 100 litres and a week earlier it was €117,27 per 100 litres.