Sugar prices are moving further down. The market is also busy with new production estimates. For example, the European Commission has significantly revised upwards the expectation for European production. In addition, new figures have been published about the expected production of Brazil, which is actually going down considerably.
Sugar prices on the ICE exchange in New York and London are moving down, a trend that has been going on for several weeks. New York was quoted yesterday at $481,27 per tonne, London at $563,10 per tonne.
European cultivation
The latest 'short term outlook' of the European Commission predicted a growth in sugar production in Europe. For 2024/25, production is expected to increase by 6% compared to 2023/24, to 16,6 million tonnes. This is 7% above the average of the past five years. This is due to a larger area of sugar beet.
Brazil
Consultant Datagro expects Brazil’s central southern sugar production to decline 8,8% in 2024/25 to 38,7 million tonnes. Production is expected to fall sharply due to lower sugarcane availability, fuelled by drought and fires over the past year. Sugarcane processing is expected to decline 9,4% to 593,01 million tonnes, Sugaronline reports. There is also more positive news from Brazil, as Brazil’s Climatempo reports rainfall in the coming period. However, this does reinforce the negative sentiment in the market.
Brazilian sugar production was 16,2% lower in the second half of September compared to last year (2,829 million tons). Overall, Brazilian production was 1,5% higher since the start of the season (33,154 million tons), but that gap is closing fast. New data will be published soon, for the first half of October.