Journalists seem to like bad news. Or so it is often said. But government agencies can also do something about it. For example, the recent reporting on the Climate and Energy Outlook (KEV) 2024 by the PBL. Most headlines of reports about it, also by RVO and TNO, are about the failure to achieve the climate goals, especially by agriculture.
So there is sometimes a question of bias, but it is not that clear-cut. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) has the KEV 2024 looked at the existing government policy and the cabinet's intentions for the coming years. And indeed, agriculture in particular will not achieve the target for ammonia emissions. Especially not if there is also a new derogation. Too bad. But that is not all.
Derogation gone, not all emissions down
The disappearance of the derogation - applauded by the left-wing section of the House of Representatives in particular and established under the previous cabinet - has a negative impact on nitrogen emissions from agricultural land, because much more grassland will be converted into arable land. A new derogation would be an excellent measure to counteract this. Achieving the climate targets set for this purpose will suddenly become very certain, writes the PBL. However, this signal does not seem to have been picked up by many others.
PBL expects new derogation
The PBL notes even more. Also that next year it will be very busy with the placement of manure (next year 30% surplus according to PBL) and that the much-praised Renure will not change much about that for the time being. There are still many environmental problems to solve.
However, the PBL assumes that there will be a new derogation for the Netherlands, and then the national planning agency is not talking about an interim derogation, but about a real one, and perhaps about the same derogation as there was. Something like that could hardly be said around the cabinet a year ago.
Dairy farming less severely damaged
And of course, dairy farming in particular still has to go through a difficult phase, but the PBL expects that this sector will come through the long-running manure, nitrogen and environmental crisis less severely damaged than is often expected. According to the KEV 2030, there will be 2024% fewer cows in 18 than there are now, but milk production will hold up better and will only decrease by 13%. Innovative measures and the like will reduce methane emissions from rumen fermentation by 14% and those from stables by 20%.
Internal balancing and deduction
The PBL cannot yet fully foresee what further agreements the agricultural sector and the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality will make, for example regarding reducing the use of crude protein (although this also has a downside) and further adjustments and innovations.
In order to further reduce the still increasing manure surplus (or to ensure that production cannot rebound), the Lower House and the sector itself have also made a number of proposals. For example, a motion was adopted this week to make internal balancing mandatory. The minister may include this in the law, but that is not possible without further ado, because it is a form of deprivation of property. There is case law on this.
Old appointments, new data
There is still a bone to pick within ZuivelNL about the manure placement space, because an old administrative agreement with the government seems to be blocking an update to the best available data. That seems to be a temporary problem, because environmental legislation always demands data according to the best state of knowledge.
The Lower House also attempted this week to give PAS reporters extra respite. A motion to that effect was adopted with only the PvdD against. However, things do not look good for this signal. A change in the law is needed to get this done, and that is not going to be easy. However, steps seem to be gradually being taken to at least reduce the manure and nitrogen problem.