News Financial
Dutch inflation continues to outperform eurozone
Inflation in October is slightly higher than last month at 3,6%, according to the CBS rapid estimate. In September, the price level rose by 3,5% on an annual basis. According to the European calculation method, Dutch inflation is 3,3% (the same as last month), which is above the eurozone average of 2,0%. According to ING, Dutch inflation will remain around 2025% in 3.
Inflation in food, beverages and tobacco was 6% in October, the same as in September. This is probably mainly due to alcoholic beverages and tobacco. The category is broken down into food and non-alcoholic beverages and stimulants, but these individual figures lag a month. In September, inflation in the broken down category of food and non-alcoholic beverages was 2,2%, compared to 1,7% in August. In those months, inflation in alcohol and tobacco was 21,8% in both August and September. This is probably due to the substantial excise duty increases on tobacco as of April. After food, beverages and tobacco, inflation was highest in the services category, at 5,4% (5,6% in September).
According to ING, 'higher taxes and higher wage growth will keep Dutch inflation around 3% rather than a decline towards 2% (the ECB's target and currently also exactly the average of the eurozone, ed.)'. "The ECB is slowing down less and less and the government is also continuing to stimulate the economy, so that inflation is not slowed down from the budget side either." According to the bank, economic growth will not be hampered by this in the short term. It points out that after a dip in the second quarter, consumption in the Netherlands picked up again in the third quarter.
Above Eurozone average
According to the European calculation method, the Dutch inflation in October is 3,3%, just like in September. Inflation in the eurozone has risen from 1,7% in October to 2% in October. In Belgium, inflation is currently the highest in the eurozone at 4,7%. In Germany, prices are 2,4% higher on an annual basis and in France 1,5%. In the eurozone, services have the highest inflation at 3,9% (which remains the same as in September). The inflation figure for food, alcohol and tobacco in the eurozone is 2,9%.
Lower sales prices
Statistics Netherlands also released information yesterday about the selling prices of the industry. For the Dutch food industry, these decreased by 3,1% year-on-year in September compared to the previous month (-2,7%). For the Dutch industry as a whole, selling prices decreased by an average of 2023% compared to September 2. From August to September, selling prices decreased by 0,7%. For the food industry, the contraction was smaller, with selling prices decreasing by 0,4%.
Food producers less negative
Producers in the food and luxury goods industry are slightly less negative in October than in September (-3,8 versus -4,8), according to other CBS figures. Producers in the food and luxury goods industry were less negative in October about expected activity than in September (-2,2 versus -2,7) and stocks (-2,1 versus -2,2), but producers in the sector are more pessimistic about the order position (-9,5 in September versus -11,5 in October).
In all sectors, producer confidence actually became more negative, from -1,7 in September to -3,2 in October. According to Statistics Netherlands, producer confidence in October is therefore below the average of the past twenty years of -1,3.
Today, CBS also came out with news about the Business Cycle Clock, a macro-economic picture. The business cycle picture is about as negative in October as it was in September.
Linda van Eekeres
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