Oil price expected to fall below $2025 by 70

Several analysts expect the price, currently hovering around $74 a barrel, to fall below $2025 by 70 and possibly even hit $60 later in the year. 

The oil market is not really choosing a direction at the moment. The oil price is at the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, December 4) $73,49 per barrel. That is slightly higher than last Thursday ($73,28). In between, there was a dip in the price of about 15 cents below $72 from Friday to Monday.

Geopolitical tensions support the oil price. Eyes remain on the Middle East. Last week, the civil war in Syria suddenly flared up again. The oil-producing countries Russia and Iran are allies of Syrian President Assad. Israel and Hezbollah are attacking each other with rockets despite the ceasefire, which is still officially in effect. In South Korea, President Yoon Suk-yeol suddenly declared a state of emergency on Tuesday, thereby sidelining parliament. Later in the day, he withdrew the state of emergency under political pressure.

Weak demand curbs oil prices
The oil price is being held back by weak global demand, with the US and especially China making a big contribution. China has not yet succeeded in pulling its economy out of the doldrums. In addition, the country is also facing a trade tariff of no less than 60% on exports of goods to the US when Trump enters the White House on January 20.

Investment bank UBS has issued a new forecast that expects China's GDP growth to slow to 4% in 2025 and 3% in 2026, assuming the US raises tariffs on Chinese exports from September 2025 and China implements more economic support measures in response. 

Will OPEC continue to restrict production?
The OPEC+ countries are meeting today (the meeting was postponed). The oil cartel has postponed the resumption of full production until January, but it is expected that the oil producing countries concerned will decide to limit production for longer. According to Reuters, until the end of the first quarter. However, OPEC's share of the oil supply is decreasing and with it the influence of the oil cartel. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), production in countries such as the US, Brazil, Argentina and Guyana is increasing, which means that OPEC's share will fall to 33% in 2030. During his campaign, Trump indicated that he wanted to significantly increase US oil production ('drill, baby, drill'). Apart from that, there are also OPEC+ countries that do not adhere to the voluntary production restrictions.

Oil price expected to be lower in 2025
Oil will fall in price next year, analysts agree. How much exactly that will be is of course difficult to predict and the forecasts therefore vary. According to ABN Amro energy economist Moutaz Altaghlibi, Brent oil will go towards $60 by the end of next year. "We expect the oil market to have a surplus in 2025, even if OPEC+ decides to stop producing," according to the outlook. "This is given the weak global demand and the strong supply from non-OPEC+ countries, which is expected to increase even further under the new US administration." The bank expects the oil price to average $70 per barrel in the first quarter of the new year, before gradually falling to $68 in Q2, $64 in Q3 and $62 in the last quarter of 2025. Bank of America is close to this and assumes that due to an oil surplus in 2025, a barrel of oil will cost an average of no more than $65.

The US Energy Agency (EIA) estimates the oil price to be much higher in its latest outlook from November, although the expectation has been revised downwards. For 2025, it assumes $76 per barrel. For comparison: according to EIA data, this was $2022 in 101, $2023 in 82 and $81 this year. A pool of analysts surveyed monthly by Reuters also assumed a lower price in 2025 last week than they did in October. Their average expectation now is that oil will cost $74,53 per barrel next year. That was $76,61 in October.

Diesel price
Diesel costs €130,20 per 100 litres, which is more than a week ago, when the price was €128,54 per 100 litres.