The oil market has entered a wait-and-see mode. The price remains fairly stable despite the fact that there are enough factors that could turn bearish. For example, the Chinese economy is not getting out of the doldrums, the dollar has risen in value with a new interest rate cut in sight and there is hope on the horizon regarding the war in Gaza.
At the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, December 18), the oil price is at $73,77, about the same level as a week ago. The Brent price rose to $74,49 per barrel last Friday, only to fall again to $73,19 on Monday.
Lower US oil inventories are supporting the oil price, but new figures on the German and especially Chinese economy are certainly not giving the oil price a boost. Industrial production in the largest oil buyer, China, grew slightly more than expected in November, but retail sales were disappointing. The economic stimulus measures do not seem to be really bearing fruit yet and the country is also facing high trade tariffs on exports to the US if Trump becomes president next month.
A strong dollar is also keeping the oil price in check. The market is awaiting the US central bank's last interest rate decision of 2024. At the time of writing, this had not yet been announced (scheduled for 20:00 PM Dutch time). The expectation is that the Fed will cut interest rates for the third time in a row, by 0,25 percentage points.
Hopeful noises are coming from the Middle East. A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas may be in sight. Under US leadership, there are talks about a phased release of the hostages still held by Hamas. In the meantime, Israel has taken over the army post on Mount Hermon in Syria, a buffer zone established in 1974, in anticipation of new agreements with the country now that the Assad regime has been toppled.
Diesel price
Diesel is going up slightly in price. From €129,60 to €130,46 per 100 liters.