Analysis Energy
Milder weather pushes gas prices back down again
Milder weather is approaching, both in Europe and in the US. The gas market has therefore passed its provisional peak. Electricity has been very expensive in recent days. Due to a lack of sun and wind, expensive fuel had to be used to keep the grid in balance.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe European gas market is calming down a bit. A level around €46, €47 on the TTF is where the market feels comfortable. However, this does mean that gas remains on the expensive side, if you compare it to where the TTF was a year ago, below €30 per MWh. Gas was also very expensive in the US last week. The US futures market peaked on 16 January at $4,26 per MMBtu. arctic blast, as the Americans call the cold front with some sense of sensation, gave the price a big boost. Now that the weather reports predict somewhat milder weather in the long term, the gas price is dropping again.
It wasn't as cold in Europe as in the US, but here too gas consumption was somewhat higher due to low temperatures. The filling level of European storages is 61% according to data from Gie Agsi, the umbrella organisation of the European gas sector. Last week the filling level was still 66%. The Netherlands is quite low on the list with storages that are 45% full. The relatively low filling level is no reason to panic for this winter. Certainly with relatively mild weather in the forecast for large parts of Europe, there should be sufficient gas available for this winter.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that the gas price will be slightly higher for the whole of 2025 than in 2024. The EIA mentions the good demand for gas on the world market as one of the reasons for this. The increase in LNG production is also happening less quickly than previously expected. Nevertheless, the EIA does expect to make progress with the production and export of gas this year.
Where the gas market has passed its provisional high point, electricity on the EPEX day-ahead is exploring the ceiling. Twice in the past seven days, the spot price passed the €200 per MWh mark. The intraday price is even above €500 per MWh for some hours.
The cold, misty weather is not conducive to the mood of many, and a change in the weather would also be welcome for generating electricity from the sun and wind. Solar panels do not yield much in the winter and if it is also misty, it does not progress at all. Wind energy usually does better, but if it is misty, there is no wind either. That is why relatively much electricity had to be generated with expensive fossil fuels.