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Analysis Oil

Trade war puts further pressure on oil price

6 February 2025 - Linda van Eekeres

The oil price remains under pressure. The escalating trade war between Washington and Beijing is to blame. Meanwhile, the US's intention to put economic pressure on Iran prevents the oil price from falling further.

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At the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, February 5), oil costs $75,45 per barrel. A week earlier, the price was $76,58 per barrel. This means that the oil price has taken another step down. A decline that started on January 15 of this year, when the oil price was $82,03 per barrel.

Although it was not 60%, as was the threat during his election campaign, Donald Trump on Tuesday imposed an additional 10% import tariff on Chinese goods imported into the US. China responded with countermeasures. The country is subjecting US coal and LNG to a 15% import tariff and US farm machinery, (pick-up) trucks and crude oil to a 10% tariff. These import duties are set to go into effect on February 10.

Trump believes that China is to blame for the many people in the US addicted to the painkiller fentanyl, because the raw materials for this drug often come from China. He wants the country to take action against this. According to Trump, the raw materials are processed into fentanyl in Mexico and Canada. Both countries were also imposed import duties (of 25%) last Saturday, but the implementation of these was paused for thirty days on Monday (3 February) after both Canada and Mexico made promises to improve border security.

Meanwhile, pressure on Iran prevents the oil price from falling further. Reuters reports that Trump is instructing his Treasury Secretary to increase economic pressure on Iran and use sanctions to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero. He succeeded in doing so in his first term, but the sanctions are now being circumvented.

OPEC refuses to respond to Trump's call
Trump recently called on OPEC+ at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos to lower oil prices in order to stop Russia's war with Ukraine. However, OPEC+ countries reaffirmed their commitment to continue cutting production during their meeting on Monday. The voluntary production cuts should support oil prices.

Diesel price
Diesel currently costs €131,92 per 100 litres (from 4.000 litres). That is a bit more expensive than a week ago when the price was €131,45.

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