The Dutch manure market clearly has two faces. Below the major rivers, prices are noticeably relaxing due to a lack of supply. This is because cattle farmers are holding off. In the middle and north of our country, on the other hand, prices are sometimes rising even further, despite the fact that the spreading season is about to start. Why this special contrast and what are the expectations in the market?
From a historical perspective, it is almost the world upside down. Where the pressure on the manure market was always highest in Brabant and Limburg, this is no longer the case. The DCA collection contributions in Deurne, Tilburg and Uden have started to decline, both for pig and cattle manure. The reason for this is that manure intermediaries are currently having difficulty staying in business. The supply of manure is latent, but livestock farmers are hardly offering volumes and are waiting for lower prices.
Elsewhere in the country, livestock farmers are also waiting to provide supply for the same understandable reason, but above the rivers the manure silos are much fuller. An intermediary from Drenthe, for example, indicates that they are busy constructing extra basins to be able to accommodate the large supply. In the south, the silos have often become almost empty, partly due to the extended spreading season, and have not been filled in recent months. The intermediaries there are now trying to loosen supply by reducing the collection contributions. This probably also has to do with attractive amounts that have been promised to arable farmers. That promise must be fulfilled soon and so there is work to be done.
In addition, it is likely that the manure market in the south is more accustomed to supply pressure in the past and can deal with it better. In the north and east of the Netherlands, surpluses were less common until recently, but this has become the new reality due to the phasing out of derogation. In addition, the impact of the designated NV areas, in which 20% less nitrogen space will be available from this year, should not be underestimated.
Season is about to start
From next week, liquid manure can be spread in the Netherlands again. Dairy farmers will gratefully use this opportunity to first fertilize their own (high) plots, before moving on to disposal. The weather conditions are variable. Due to the rainfall in recent days, some plots are still too wet. In addition, frost has been forecast for early next week. One point of contact is that there is not much more rain in the forecast. After an exceptionally wet year, a dry spring would be very desirable, as both friend and foe agree.
A further decrease in manure prices in the southern region is a likely scenario in the coming weeks, although we must be careful not to overestimate. Major price decreases of up to €5 per cubic meter, for example, are not a realistic scenario, it is indicated. If the weather conditions continue to be favourable, the manure market elsewhere could also relax somewhat, but for that to happen, the necessary water must first flow through the Rhine.
DCA collection contributions
The average price of meat pigs in the South of the Netherlands is €36,50 per cubic metre and in the Central Netherlands €36,33. The collection contribution for cattle manure is €33,33 and €34,33 per cubic metre for the South and Central respectively.
Click here for a link to the database for (historical) manure prices.