The oil price is rising again. Concerns about the supply are responsible for this. The price increase is being kept in check by the negotiations between Russia and the US in Saudi Arabia about ending the war with Ukraine. However, it is doubtful whether this will have much effect on the availability of Russian oil.
Last week, oil prices actually dropped, reaching a weekly low of $74,74 per barrel on Friday, February 14. Since then, oil has been climbing again. At the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, February 19), the price is $76,22.
The European Union on Wednesday (19 February) agreed to a new package of sanctions against Russia, adding not only raw aluminium but also expanding the blacklist of oil tankers in Russia’s shadow fleet (ageing, uninsured ships with unclear ownership).
Russian oil pipeline
Russia can supply 30-40% of its oil via the Caspian pipeline due to damage after a Ukrainian drone attack, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has told Russian news agency Tass. He said repairs would take months. The 1.511-kilometer pipeline runs from western Kazakhstan to the port terminal in Novorossiysk in southern Russia, according to Tass.
There have also been signals since this week that the OPEC+ countries will continue to limit production after April to support the price. Although this news does not seem unrealistic, there are also reports that contradict this. The oil cartel itself has not yet made a statement about this.
Meanwhile, negotiations are taking place in Saudi Arabia between Russia and the US to end the war in Ukraine. The question is whether we can really speak of peace negotiations, regardless of how successful they will be. It is now mainly a preliminary exploration, as is evident from statements by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who has said that 'in the real peace negotiations' both Ukraine and Europe must have a seat at the table. In any case, the prospect of possible peace is keeping the oil price in check, as a possible peace treaty would ensure a higher supply of Russian oil, which is now subject to sanctions by Western countries.
However, Russia is also affiliated with OPEC and if the organization actually continues to voluntarily limit production, that could also have consequences for the amount of Russian oil. Investment bank Goldman Sachs does not expect a ceasefire to significantly increase the flow of Russian oil onto the market. "We believe that Russian crude oil production is limited by the OPEC+ production target of 9 million barrels per day and not by the current sanctions, which affect destinations but not the volume of oil exported," Reuters quotes the investment bank as saying.
Diesel price
The diesel price is €130,39 per 100 litres (from 4.000 litres). That is less than last week, when the price was €134,04.