Analysis Milk
US milk production is growing, but for how long?
Despite declining milk production per cow, a shortage of heifers and an aging dairy herd, milk production increased in January. Meanwhile, the spread of avian influenza continues to severely impact milk production in California.
Read this article?
Become a subscriber and get instant access
Choose the subscription that suits you
Milk production in the US reached 8,31 million tons in January across the top 24 states, according to the latest report from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). This represents an increase of 0,2% from the same month last year and 1,85% from the previous month. The herd size grew by 0,61% from the previous year to 8,93 million animals, implying a 0,39% decrease in milk production per cow year-on-year.
Annual milk production for the full year 2024 came in at 98,3 million tons, up 0,11% from the previous year. The average U.S. herd size declined 0,25% year-over-year to 8,89 million animals, while annual milk production per cow increased 0,17% to 11.050 pounds.
For 2025, Rabobank predicts a 0,8% increase in milk production. However, the outbreak of bird flu in California and its possible spread to other states could impact this growth forecast.
| Impact of bird flu |
|
Bird flu, also known as avian influenza or H5N1, is spreading rapidly, particularly in California’s dairy industry. So far, 975 dairy farms across the U.S. have been affected. In addition, nearly 70 people have been infected with the virus between April and February, most of whom work on dairy farms. An estimated 17 percent of dairy workers on U.S. dairy farms have been infected, according to a study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). However, in early February, a new strain (D1.1) was first detected in dairy cattle. This mutation has raised concerns about the virus’s ability to adapt to mammals and the risk of reinfection. |
California milk production declines
In California, the largest dairy state in the US, production fell despite an increase in the herd, indicating a significant drop in milk production per cow. In January, milk production fell by 5,7% year-on-year to 1,5 million tons due to the effects of bird flu, while the herd grew by 1.000 animals to 1,71 million. As a result, milk production per cow fell sharply by 5,8% to 931,7 kilos. In December, the drop was almost 8%, indicating that the situation is easing somewhat.
In addition to declining productivity per animal, especially in California, the U.S. dairy industry is facing a shortage of heifers to replace older dairy cows. This trend could reduce the efficiency of milk production in the coming years.
Although the U.S. dairy herd grew in 2024, a decline in the number of heifers has forced farmers to keep older cows longer. The slaughter of 385.000 animals was postponed to maintain milk production, but an aging herd reduces efficiency as older cows produce less milk.
According to the USDA, the number of heifers declined 0,93 percent year-over-year to 3,9 million animals on Jan. 1, continuing a trend of seven consecutive years of declining heifer numbers.
High beef cattle prices
A major cause of the heifer shortage is the high demand for beef cattle, which has led farmers to increasingly crossbreed dairy cows with beef bulls. This provides additional income and benefits from the high prices of crossbred calves. However, this shift has reduced the supply of replacement heifers, which could potentially affect the long-term productivity of the dairy sector.