Donald Trump seems to be fulfilling one campaign promise at the moment: cheap oil. After the import tariffs of the American president and the reactions of Canada and China (Mexico has yet to respond), the price of oil is showing a sharp downward trend. Whether oil will remain cheap for the American citizen is the question. The US imports a considerable amount of oil from Canada and Mexico and analysts therefore expect a price increase for oil in the country.
The decision by OPEC+ to stick to its plan to slowly bring more oil back onto the market is also contributing to the drop in oil prices. A week ago, on Thursday 27 February, the Brent benchmark was at $74,04 per barrel. Now oil has dipped to $69,38 at the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon 5 March), the lowest price in almost six months (since 10 September).
trade war
Trump imposed a 4% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico on Tuesday (March 25), 10% on energy from Canada, and an additional 10% on China (on top of the 10% imposed previously). Canada and China immediately retaliated with tariffs for certain American (agricultural) productsMexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has also announced counter-tariffs and will announce their details on Sunday.
Canada is the country from which the US imports the most crude oil, about 4,2 million barrels per day of crude oil in December, according to the most recent data from the US Energy Agency (EIA). In the same month, 451.000 barrels per day were imported from the second-largest supplier Mexico. The oil is processed in US refineries that cannot easily be converted to the "lighter" US oil. The US itself pumped a record 13,5 million barrels of oil per day in December.
OPEC+ increases production
Also weighing on oil prices is the decision by OPEC+ countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman on Monday (March 3) to continue with a plan to gradually reduce production cuts and bring more oil to the market, but with the caveat that this could be paused or reversed depending on market conditions.
Diesel price
The diesel price also continues to fall, from €128,53 per 100 litres (from 4.000 litres) last week (then the lowest point of 2025) to €125,49 per 100 litres.