Oil prices have been hovering around $70 for the past week. Lower production expectations and a weak dollar are pushing prices up, while Trump’s trade war and the faltering Chinese economy are pushing back (almost) as hard.
Last Wednesday, a barrel of Brent oil dropped below $70. Last Thursday (March 6), the price was $69,46. In recent days, the price has moved slightly below or above the $70 mark. At the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, March 12), the oil price is $70,69 per barrel. The current upward movement is attributed to a weaker dollar and higher production expectations.
The US Energy Agency (EIA) has revised its forecast for the oil price in the third quarter of 2025 upwards, from $70 to $75 per barrel. This is due to the decline in oil production by Iran and Venezuela. However, stocks will increase again after that, according to the EIA's short-term forecast released on Tuesday. This is because OPEC+ will start pumping more oil again and non-OPEC countries are also expected to increase their production. According to the agency, this will put pressure on the oil price at the end of this year and throughout 2026. An average oil price of $2026 is therefore expected for 68.
However, the price is also currently being held in check by the trade war unleashed by Trump. There are fears that the American economy will slow down and the demand for oil will be curbed. Europe has also hit back. Yesterday (12 March) the 25% import duty on steel and aluminium came into effect and the European Union announced counter-levies. Previous countermeasures are being used again and there is also a new package of additional levies for food products, among other things.
Meanwhile, the Chinese economy continues to struggle. The latest figures point to deflation, with prices falling 0,7% year-on-year in February.
A 30-day ceasefire in the works between Ukraine and Russia is also working bearish on the price of oil, and then from the supply side. Long-term peace would mean lifting sanctions on Russian oil exports. Ukraine has already agreed to the ceasefire, and the US has resumed military support and intelligence sharing with the country. Now we wait for Putin's response.
Diesel price
The price of diesel has fallen compared to a week ago, from €125,49 per 100 litres to €123,64.