Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are currently pushing oil prices higher. However, there are also plenty of factors that are keeping oil prices in check. For example, Trump's trade policy. There are concerns that the trade war he has unleashed is not doing the economy any good and is limiting demand for oil. US oil inventories have also risen more than expected this week.
At the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, March 19), the oil price is $71,04 per barrel. Last Thursday it was $69,88. The price is therefore rising, although it is being driven by factors that bearish have also been kept in check. OPEC+ is set to gradually increase oil production again next month, and a possible partial ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine would be good news for the Russian oil industry.
There is currently a lot going on on the world stage that is keeping the oil market in its grip. Tensions have risen again in the Middle East. The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seems to be off now that Israel is once again carrying out air strikes. In the meantime, the US has carried out a series of attacks on the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. This is because the Houthis are making transport via the Red Sea and the Suez Canal virtually impossible with their attacks on cargo ships - because of the attacks on Gaza. There are concerns that escalation in the region will affect the oil supply.
There is no real ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine yet, but plans are being made under the leadership of the US to temporarily stop attacking each other's energy facilities with missile attacks. This would also put an end to attacks on the Russian oil industry. With the chance of a future end to the war in Ukraine, more Russian oil could eventually enter the market.
The tariff war unleashed by Trump is also keeping the oil price in check. There are widespread concerns about the US economy. The US central bank meets tonight (March 19) for an interest rate decision and that is being closely watched by the market. On the other hand, the market is getting a glimmer of hope again due to stimulus measures for both the German and Chinese economies.
Diesel price
The price of diesel continues to fall, from €123,64 last week to €121,97.