The mild and locally quite sunny spring weather of the last few days is also clearly visible on the energy market. Especially on the electricity market, sun or no sun makes a world of difference. Despite all the investments in sustainable energy, the role of fossil fuels is not yet over, as is evident from data from the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The gas market has been fairly stable in recent days. Low €40 per MWh is the level that players on the TTF feel comfortable with.
Partly due to the somewhat milder weather that has arrived, the demand for gas is decreasing somewhat. This is reflected in the filling level of the European gas storages. For the first time since last autumn, the European gas stock increased slightly last weekend. And that is not surprising, because the filling level is around 34% according to the data from Gie/Agsi. In the Netherlands, the storages are almost 22% full, which puts us at the back of Europe.
Politics
The US is a major supplier of gas (in the form of LNG) to the EU. With the current US president, it is difficult to estimate where you stand. On the one hand, Trump is abandoning the green policy of his predecessor Biden (somewhat comparable to the EU where the Von der Leyen I Commission pursued a much greener course than Von der Leyen II). According to analysts, this makes the investment climate for the oil and gas industry somewhat friendlier in the US. For example, according to Bloomberg, Trump is said to be close to a permit for a large LNG project in Louisiana. From that side, American LNG exporters have the wind in their sails. Trump's trade policy and import restrictions, on the other hand, are less favourable.
Global gas demand increased by 2,7% last year, according to the Global Energy Review 2025 published this week by the IEA. In absolute terms, this amounts to an additional 115 billion cubic meters of gas demand in 2024 compared to 2023. The average growth in demand over the past ten years was 75 billion cubic meters per year. By far the largest growth in gas demand over the past year came from China with 30 billion cubic meters, or 7% of the global demand increase.
Heat increases demand for electricity
The demand for electricity is growing faster than the demand for gas, according to figures from the IEA. The IEA estimates the total growth at 1.080,1 TWh, an increase of 4,3% compared to 2023. Of this additional demand for electricity, just over half is accounted for by China. The IEA mentions, among other things, increased consumption for cooling by heat (air conditioning), electrification of transport and expansion of data centers as causes for the additional demand for electricity.
The additional power required is largely generated by solar panels and wind turbines. Coal and gas are also being used more. There was also a significant expansion of nuclear energy. According to the IEA, 2024 GW of nuclear capacity will be put into operation in 7. That is 33% more than in 2023 and the fifth highest expansion in the last thirty years.
That large share of electricity generated from renewable sources is also reflected in the Dutch market. The Epex Day Ahead dropped last Saturday (22 March) to €39,94 per MWh. That is the lowest price since January. On the Intraday market, the electricity price dropped below zero and the electricity price was almost €13.00 per MWh negative between 14.00:110 and 19.00:20.00. A few hours later, between 175:XNUMX and XNUMX:XNUMX, the price had risen to €XNUMX MWh.