The oil price has plummeted and the decline has not yet stopped. The price of gas is also moving downward. President Donald Trump celebrated his self-proclaimed 'liberation day' last Wednesday by imposing import duties on the entire world. A day later, the OPEC+ countries gave the oil price another blow by deciding to accelerate the increase in oil production.
Brent crude was at $2 a barrel on April 74,95. At the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, April 9), that is $60,22, a decrease of 19,65%. The last time the price was this low was February 2021.
Trump’s trade war has erupted in full force. Last week, the US president imposed additional import duties on China of 34%. Together with the 20% he had already imposed, the import duties came to 54%. The country retaliated with an import tariff of 34% on the US, in response to which Trump raised the import duties on China again, to a whopping 104%. The counter-reaction to this came today: China is also adding an additional 50% to the tariffs, bringing them to 84%. In addition, the country is blacklisting even more American companies.
Today, EU countries also decided on countermeasures, according to the European Commission statement, against the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum announced in March (not the 20% tariff on most goods announced last week). The EU is not going in with a straight leg like China. The list has not yet been released, but media reports say a leaked list shows that American whiskey, wine, bourbon and dairy (which were on the draft list) are exempt. Other goods, including corn, rice, poultry and soybeans, would be subject to import duties of 10% to 25%.
Amidst the trade war came the OPEC+ with the decision to accelerate the reduction of the voluntary production restriction - which has been gradually phased out since this month. This will bring more oil onto the market. In combination with the concerns about the economy, especially in the US and China but also elsewhere in the world, this is putting pressure on oil prices.
Bloomberg news agency quotes from a report by investment bank Goldman Sachs, which stated in an analysis this week that in an "extreme and less likely scenario" in which OPEC+ countries completely roll back production cuts, the trade war erupts in full force and thus puts a brake on global GDP, the oil price could fall below $2026 per barrel by the end of 40.
The price of diesel is also falling: on April 3, diesel cost €124,32 per 100 liters (from 4.000 liters), on April 9 this was €116,54 per 100 liters.
Gas price moves down
Dutch gas reserves are now almost 22% full, according to data from Gie/Agsi. Slightly more than the 21% last week, but a lot lower than the EU total of 34,95% (which is also slightly higher than last week). For two weeks, the gas price remained fairly stable around 42 per MWh on the TTF, but in the last week the price dropped to €34,00 per MWh on Wednesday afternoon.
Few hours with negative electricity price in recent days
On the electricity pot market EPEX, the average price per day varied from €35,58 per MWh (6 April) to €91,16 per MWh (7 April). Today there was not a single hour with an average negative electricity price, yesterday it was one hour and Monday two hours. This indicates that there has been relatively little supply of solar and wind energy in recent days.
CO2 emissions from energy sector not falling further
According to the Dutch energy sector, CO2 emissions last year de Dutch Emissions Authority (NEA) did not decrease further. In previous years, energy was largely responsible for a decrease in CO2 emissions. In 2024, emissions from Dutch companies in the European Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) will have increased.
This is partly due to the so-called dunkelflaute (period with cloud cover, no wind) at the end of the year. At that time, coal and gas-fired power stations produced more to compensate for the loss of solar and wind energy, according to the NEA. Over the whole of 2024, the four Dutch coal-fired power stations actually produced less electricity. The two power stations that produce steam for Tata Steel, Vattenfall Power Velsen and Vattenfall Power IJmond, have operated harder this year due to increased steel production.
Households have lower energy bills
An average household will spend €2025 per year on its energy bill based on January 2.065 prices, the CBS reports. That is €43 less than when calculating with January 2024 prices. The statistics agency explains the decrease by lower prices, combined with a slightly lower estimated electricity consumption for 2025. According to the CBS, gas consumption will increase in 2025.