The US and China have slashed import duties on each other. The stock markets and the dollar responded to this and the oil price is also affected. The countries are the largest oil consumers in the world and the fact that the trade war is now being eased is good for the economies of the countries. The gas price is also rising. This is partly because the EU now wants to finally get rid of its addiction to Russian gas.
At the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, May 14), oil costs $66,46 per barrel, while on May 5 it was $60,23.
The two largest oil consuming countries, the US and China, have reached an agreement on mutual import duties. For ninety days, a tariff of 30% will apply to most Chinese goods imported into the US. Conversely, China is reducing the import duties on American goods to 10%. Both countries are thereby reducing the import tariff by no less than 115 percentage points. The duties had risen to 145% in the US and 125% in China.
Meanwhile, there are still factors that are putting pressure on the oil price. For example, the OPEC+ countries are increasing production in May and June. The ongoing negotiations between the US and oil producer Iran on a nuclear deal are also putting pressure on prices, because this gives a sense that the American sanctions will be lifted.
Trump is currently visiting the Middle East. Oil is undoubtedly also a topic of conversation there. Under the leadership of Saudi Arabia, the OPEC countries are increasing oil production. This is also the wish of Trump, who has promised the American population a low oil price and has previously urged the oil cartel to pump more oil. According to some analysts, this is also done to curry favor with Trump. The question is, however, whether the OPEC+ countries will continue with the production increase if the price comes under too much pressure in the near future.
Now truly become independent of Russian energy
Despite sanctions following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, more Russian gas was imported into the EU in 2024. However, the volume of imported Russian gas has decreased since 2021, from 150 billion cubic meters to 52 billion cubic meters in 2024. No more Russian coal is imported and oil imports have fallen from a share of 27% in early 2022 to 3%. The European Commission has now drawn up a roadmap to become completely independent of Russian energy. According to the Commission, this will ensure the security of the EU's energy supply and limit the impact on prices and markets.
Part of the measures is that new contracts with suppliers of Russian gas (via pipeline and LNG) may no longer be concluded and existing contracts will be terminated by the end of this year. Member states must have drawn up plans by the end of the year on how they will contribute to the phasing out of Russian oil, nuclear and gas imports.
The gas price has risen again, partly due to the plans from Brussels. Last Monday (one day before the European Commission came up with the measures), gas was traded on the Dutch TTF for €32,90 per megawatt hour. On 14 May, that is €35,445.
Due to the warm weather, there is little demand for gas for heating. However, gas supplies do need to be replenished. According to data from GIE AGSI, gas supplies throughout the EU are more than 43% full. In the Netherlands, this is less than 29%. This means that the Netherlands is still lagging behind in Europe, but last week it was still almost 27%, so the Dutch gas supply is slowly becoming somewhat fuller.
Electricity prices fluctuated last week. Thursday 8 May the price on the Epex spot market was highest at €97,75 per megawatt hour, while on 11 May €5,46 was noted. A lot of solar energy is being generated and this week there are several hours of negative electricity prices every day.
Fewer heat pumps sold
Sales of heat pumps have fallen in the Netherlands for the first time after years of growth, according to new figures from Statistics Netherlands (CBS). In 2024, 393.000 heat pumps (including air conditioners) were sold here, 14% less than in 2023 and 2% less than in 2022. At the end of 2024, there were 2,6 million heat pumps in the Netherlands. More and more hybrid air-to-water heat pumps are being sold, 42% last year. These are only installed in existing buildings because new buildings no longer have a gas connection.