Rain still urgently needed: June will be decisive

The spring of 2025 will be extremely dry, despite the precipitation of the past few days. Arable farmers are busy irrigating to provide the crops with sufficient moisture, but there is still great uncertainty about the further course of the growing season. Will there still be sufficient precipitation in June, or will the drought continue? Arable farmers are racking their brains about this question. 

According to precipitation data from the KNMI, the spring of 2025 will be one of the driest since 1951. It is drier than in 1996 and 2011. These were years in which the growing season also started dry, but rain fell in June. That rain then caused a recovery of the yields, but at the same time depressed the market prices due to the larger supply. It is also extreme in Belgium with the driest spring since 1873. 

The year 1976 is often cited as a reference for an extremely dry year. The drought lasted the entire season, resulting in lower yields. However, the shortage actually caused prices to rise. Such periods of drought seem to occur more often; climate change has made our summers warmer. The average summer temperature in De Bilt rose from 16,1°C (1951–1980) to 17,6°C (1995–2024). The number of summer days (25°C or more) increased from 13 to 23 per year. This makes crops more susceptible to drought stress and pest pressure.

Drought puts pressure on agriculture
In various regions, arable farmers are noticing that the lack of precipitation is starting to have an effect on their crops. Irrigation is increasingly being used to prevent damage. Daan Tap from Elst (Gelderland) says: "I irrigated for the first time two weeks ago. There is a good chance that I will water for the second time at the end of this week. Some extra moisture is certainly not detrimental to tuber formation." Arable farmers in Noord-Brabant are also noticing the consequences. Gybert Doggen from Wouw says: "We are waiting for the rain to come, but I expect the reels to start turning again on Friday. The soil moisture on the crop tour plot is rising. We had 9 millimeters this weekend, but that doesn't really buy you anything."

June as a defining month
The coming weeks are crucial, it is indicated. If rain comes in June, it is possible that crops will recover and the harvest will still be reasonable, as in previous dry years. If it remains dry, then 2025 could be in the direction of 1976: lower yields, but possibly higher prices due to the shortage of supply.

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