Background Nitrogen mood
Fallen Schoof cabinet not yet crippled
Minister Femke Wiersma is angry about the fall of the Schoof cabinet. She calls it 'very disappointing' and even 'reprehensible'. The agricultural organisations are also disappointed and for once unanimous. However, a fallen cabinet is certainly not gone or played out.
It was unexpected that PVV leader Geert Wilders actually put his money where his mouth was last Tuesday and pulled the plug on the collaboration. However, that does not mean that the entire Schoof cabinet is gone. A caretaker cabinet remains, which must continue to do the work until a new team is installed. And that could take some time. The Electoral Council believes that no new elections can be organised before 29 October. After that, the search for a new government coalition will follow.
Caretaker at work
With the experience of the last few years in mind and the division in Dutch politics in mind, that will not be a job that will be done in a few weeks. There is even a good chance that the remaining ministers will be in office as caretaker ministers for longer than as missionaries. And - although they may be a bit handicapped politically - they are certainly not crippled. Look at what the previous generation of caretaker ministers has accomplished. Chairman Arno Visser of Bouwend Nederland (also VVD) said it even more sharply on BNR radio this week: "A caretaker minister can and may do anything!" So step on the gas, was his advice.
Derogation and NB permits
Minister Wiersma can take this to heart. One of her most important tasks is to apply for a new derogation for livestock farming. Whether she, together with her colleagues, will be allowed to continue working on the nitrogen dossier is still up to the Lower House to decide. But it will also feel the pressure not to make itself too powerless and to sit on its hands. And if not, there is an action group such as MOB that will tighten the screws on politics. The court in The Hague judged this week that former Minister of Nitrogen and Nature Christianne van der Wal had granted the national airport an unsound nature permit. And if that had been the case, Schiphol would probably have had to surrender the permit, because due to the ruling of the Council of State at the end of last year on internal and external balancing, Schiphol would still have been in the wrong. In recent years, it has bought up a number of farms spread across the country for a lot of money, but for nothing. An interesting question now is where that purchased nitrogen space ends up - in the provincial nitrogen banks, or has this also evaporated?
Who's talking and who's doing business?
If the Lower House allows it, the cabinet can also continue to push through legislation. In various areas, voting can also take place according to the existing ratios. However, not everything will simply continue. After all, there is a break. Negotiations on eliminating the manure surplus and buying up cows can in principle also continue, but for months it has not been really clear with whom exactly business is being done. In other words: the outline of the talking circuit is clear, but whose vote counts and whose does not, remains a mystery.
Small innovators and protected interests
Policymakers usually don't mind that much, because it makes it easier for them to push through their own agenda. However, the agricultural sector doesn't benefit much from this. Livestock farmers benefit from technically sound solutions that also offer room for innovation. At first glance, clubs such as Agractie and Stichting Stikstofclaim are working hardest on this. They come up with initiatives and also work hard to make their mark externally. The traditional lobbyists seem to increasingly fulfil a ceremonial role with little initiative of their own. In the meantime, they do have the largest budget, certainly compared to the first-mentioned 'small ones'. It is wise to continue working on a solution, but then preferably with more joint focus and sharpness of effort. The sector will not get there with only 'guaranteed consultation seats' in the government.
New legal postponement
That the 'remaining cabinet' wants to continue working, was also shown on Friday by sending a number of decisions to the Lower House. Agriculture will not be happy about everything. For example, about the proposal to amendment of the Environmental Act – intended for customization of PAS reporters. This is new legislation, but not something that will help agricultural companies in practice, because it gives the opportunity to postpone solutions for PAS reporters even further. Another proposal concerns expanding the possibilities to tackle problems with wolves and golden jackals – this as an elaboration of a European decision.
Then just in the ground
Individual farmers are working hard in the meantime, trying to ignore what is hanging over their heads and trying to find a way forward with inventiveness. And although compulsory land-based agriculture does not seem to be coming for the time being, farmers are doing the same as citizens do in uncertain times, and uncertain times they are. Citizens are diving into gold as a safe investment, farmers are diving into land. Rabobank – also mentioned as a major financier of cow purchases – sees agricultural land prices continue to rise. Between the first quarter of 2024 and the same period this year, the average price has risen from €78.800 per hectare to €91.300 per hectare. That is an increase of almost 16%. It is expensive to buy such land, but in terms of return it is good and it remains a solid collateral for any financier.
Klaas van der Horst
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