Analysis Pigs
Chinese pig sector sees profits slipping away
Chinese pig farmers are finding it increasingly difficult to make a profit. The falling pig price in China continues to put considerable pressure on profitability. For the time being, the prospect of improvement is limited. The Chinese government's attempt to drastically reduce the number of sows now seems to have stalled.
Read this article?
Become a subscriber and get instant access
Choose the subscription that suits you
The profitability of the Chinese pig farming industry is back in the doldrums after a strong period. In August 2024, after months of losses, profitability rose to an average of 565 yuan per pig (€68,89 at current exchange rates), according to data from the Chinese statistical agency. For large-scale pig farms (with at least 10.000 pigs), profits even rose to 762 yuan (€92,91). However, profits have been under pressure again since then. In April 2025, profitability fell to 50 yuan (€6,10) per pig. The profit of large-scale farms then amounted to 86 yuan (€10,49).
The lower profitability is due to a decline in Chinese pig prices. In week 33 of 2024, the pig price peaked at 20,92 yuan (€2,55) per kilo. In week 21 of 2025, the price dropped to 14,93 yuan (€1,82) per kilo.
As a result, income per (conventional) pig dropped by 22,7%, from 2.810 yuan (€342,63) to 2.173 yuan (€264,96) per pig. However, the cost per pig remained fairly stable, roughly between 2.050 yuan (€249,96) and 2.250 yuan (€274,35).
Printing supply proves to be a difficult task
Since the market recovery in 2022, following the outbreak of African swine fever (ASF), the situation in the Chinese pig sector has quickly turned around. What started as a period of recovery has turned into a structural oversupply. The Chinese government has strongly stimulated production, while demand has fallen due to a weakening economy. On top of that, there has been a structural decline in pork consumption, partly caused by changing eating habits, especially among urban and younger consumers.
As a result, prices dropped to a level where many pig farmers could no longer produce cost-coveringly. In order to stabilize the market, the government announced an intervention in March 2024: the national sow herd had to be reduced from 41 to 39 million animals. Initially, this measure seemed to have an effect. In April 2024, the sow herd dropped to 39,86 million animals, but by the summer the decline had stagnated. In the meantime, the sow herd has even increased significantly again. In April 2025, it had risen again to 40,38 million animals.