The escalation of the air war between Iran and Israel, which has also targeted Iranian oil and gas facilities, has pushed up oil prices. The world is now watching to see what action US President Donald Trump will take. CEOs of major oil companies are warning of serious consequences for oil supply and prices.
Oil continues to rise in price, where last Thursday June 12 (before Israel's attack on Iran) a barrel of Brent oil cost $69,36, at the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon June 18) it has already risen all day to $77,21. That is an increase of 11,3%. This is the highest point since January 28, when Brent crude oil cost $77,49 per barrel. The Trump effect, the plummeting of the oil price after the American president announced high import tariffs on April 1, has now been completely undone. The looming import tariffs and the economy of the US and China are still factors that weigh on the oil price, as is the increased production of the OPEC+ countries, but these are currently overshadowed by the situation in the Middle East.
While the US (not very successfully) tried to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, Israel on Friday started bombing nuclear targets. The resulting escalation, with missile attacks on both sides, has had a boosting effect on the price of oil. A gas plant and an oil depot and refinery have also been hit.
The US was strongly opposed to attacks on gas and oil facilities. Trump is not interested in rising oil prices. Despite the American and European sanctions, Iranian oil still finds its way to the world market, especially to China. The Iranian gas and oil infrastructure has so far been largely spared.
The CEOs of TotalEnergies, Shell and EnQuest warn on the American CNBC that attacks on important energy infrastructure could have serious consequences for the global supply of oil and therefore prices. The worst-case scenario is that Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, a major shipping route for large oil tankers. All eyes are now on whether America will intervene in the war.
Diesel
Diesel climbs in the wake of oil from €120,57 per 100 liters (from 4.000 liters) on Thursday, June 12, to €127,52 on Wednesday, June 18.
Gas
The gas price has risen to €39,999 per MWh on the TFF futures market at the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, June 18). Last Thursday, that was €36,177 per MWH. Increased demand for air conditioning due to the warm weather may play a role in this. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), the Dutch gas supply is 42,4% full. The European target for the Netherlands of 47% on July 1 therefore seems to be within reach. EU-wide, 54,1% of gas storages are already full.
Stroom
Electricity prices were also quite high last week. On the spot market Epex Spot day ahead, electricity cost more than €80 per MWh in the last three days and the lowest daily average was still €55,78 per MWH on Saturday 14 June.