The oil market is confident that things will not get out of hand in the Middle East, as evidenced by the sharp drop in the oil price. After the escalation of the air war between Iran and Israel drove up the oil price considerably, a sharp downward trend has been visible since a week ago. There is a ceasefire, but it is not entirely certain. There is also sunny news: the first half of the year in the Netherlands has never been so sunny and this means that more than average solar energy is being generated.
On Thursday, June 19, Brent crude was at $78,85 per barrel. The price went into free fall to $67,14 on Tuesday, June 24, a drop of 15%. The price drop seems to have stopped, because at the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, June 25), oil is priced somewhat higher at $67,95 per barrel than the day before.
The escalation of the air war between Iran and Israel, with the latter also targeting oil and gas facilities, had driven up oil prices considerably. On Saturday night, the US joined the conflict by bombing three nuclear facilities in Iran. A ceasefire between Iran and Israel was agreed after the weekend. An initial violation of both sides resulted in a tirade from Trump, which seems to have made an impression. However, the ceasefire remains fragile. Meanwhile, anonymous sources from US intelligence agencies are also revealing that the US attacks on three nuclear facilities by bunker busters may not have substantially affected the Iranian nuclear program and may have delayed it by at most a few months.
The ceasefire has probably averted a closure of the Strait of Hormuz for the time being. The Iranian parliament has approved a plan to close the strait, prompting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to call on China to prevent this. China has a strong interest in keeping the strait open, as the largest buyer of Iranian oil. Approximately 20% of the world's oil trade is transported through the Strait of Hormuz.
Gas
The gas price shows the same movement as the oil price. After initially rising, the gas price has fallen sharply since 19 June. On 19 June, gas on the TTF cost €41,63 per MWh. On 25 June, this is €35,59, a decrease of 14,5%. Due to the current temperatures, little gas is also being consumed.
The gas storages of the Netherlands are currently 45,2% full (was 42,4% last week) according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). This puts us well on our way to the European filling target for our country of 47% on 1 July. On average, Europe is going from 54,1% last week to 56,6% of the gas stock built.
Diesel
Diesel has also (with some delay) followed oil and gas on the way down. From €131,14 per 100 litres (from 4.000 litres) on 23 June to €122,00 on 25 June, a decrease of 7%.
Electricity
The electricity price at the Epex Spot (day ahead) fluctuated over the past week between €41,76 per MWh on Monday 23 June and €97,47 on Wednesday 25 June. The high daily average was last matched on 8 May.
Sunniest first half year ever in the Netherlands
According to Weeronline, the number of hours of sunshine in 2025 broke a record in the first half of the year on June 25. The previous record dates from 2022 with an average of 1.181 hours of sunshine. The weather service expects that we will reach 1.245 hours of sunshine in June. There was also a record number of (so far) 48 very sunny days, with the sun shining 80% of the time that there is daylight. All this also ensures more solar energy than average and according to Weeronline this will also be the case next week. The KNMI recently reported that there is more sunshine due to cleaner air. Not only in Europe and America, where this phenomenon started in the 80s, but recently also in China.