The Netherlands' dependence on Russian energy has fallen sharply since the invasion of Ukraine. The country has traded places with the US as the country on which we are most energy-dependent. This is evident from new CBS figures. TNO launched the TNO Vector Energy Price Monitor this week. The research organisation expects gas and electricity prices to fall over the next five years, but oil prices to rise. Back to the here and now, we see that the oil price has remained fairly stable last week, after the 15% free fall between 19 and 24 June.
Brent crude was trading at $19 per barrel on June 78,85th. The price plummeted to $67,14 per barrel on June 24th, a drop of 15%. Since then, the oil price has been fairly stable, with a small drop yesterday to $67,11 per barrel and a slight upward movement again today. At the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, July 2nd), a barrel of Brent crude is trading at $67,75.
The ceasefire between Iran and Israel is still in place. Furthermore, OPEC intends to increase production again in August by 411.000 barrels per day, according to Reuters. That also has a price-dampening effect. There is interest in next Wednesday, July 9, when the XNUMX-day period in which the high import duties of the US were paused ends. The EU received a new proposal from the US last week, but there is no deal yet.
Diesel
The diesel price is higher than last Thursday, June 26 (€121,69) and stands at €2 per 122,96 liters on July 100 (from 4.000 liters).
Gas price continues to fall
The gas price had fallen by 19% between 25 and 14,5 June to €35,86 per MWh and fell another 6,3% last week to €33,60 per MWh on Wednesday afternoon 2 July. European gas reserves are now almost 59% full, those of the Netherlands 48% (last week just over 45%). The European target of 47% on 1 July has thus been achieved.
With the heat of the past few days, the air conditioners were working overtime. The electricity price at the Epex Spot (day ahead) reached a peak of €1 per MWh on July 144,86, which was last exceeded on February 17.
Netherlands energy dependent on US instead of Russia
In 2024, the Netherlands was 78% dependent on foreign countries for its energy, of which 3 percentage points from Russia, according to CBS figures. In 2021, this was still 21 percentage points of 77% dependence on other countries. However, we have become more dependent on the US (oil and gas), from 3 percentage points in 2021 to 24 percentage points last year.
In 2024, the Netherlands imported most oil from the US, followed by Norway and the UK. Furthermore, more oil is imported from Kazakhstan, Brazil and Guyana than before 2024.
The Netherlands has become more dependent on gas from abroad since 2015. The largest increase was seen until 2020. The largest dependency is now (as with oil) on the US, closely followed by Norway. In the US it is liquefied natural gas (LNG) and in Norway it is gaseous natural gas.
TNO expects sharp drop in gas and electricity prices
TNO expects gas and electricity prices to fall over the next five years, but oil prices to rise. This week, the research organization launched the TNO Vector Energy Price Monitor, an online platform that provides quarterly insight into expected energy price developments in the Netherlands up to 2030. The expectations are calculated using a model with uncertainty margins, based on historical price developments, TNO said in a statement. TNO wants to help governments, companies or knowledge partners make better choices for investments, policy or research.
According to TNO's forecast, gas prices will fall from 46 cents per cubic meter to 23 cents per cubic meter due to greater availability of LNG on the European market. "However, the European emissions trading price will drive up gas costs in Europe compared to the US," according to TNO. The growth of green energy and better international network connections are also expected to cause electricity prices to fall. TNO does note that 'abolishing compensation can keep costs in the Netherlands relatively high'. The average price expected for 2030 is €70 per MWh. That is €20 less than for June this year. According to TNO, the oil price will rise from €69 to around €80 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions, production restrictions and climate policy.
For CO2 emission rights (EU ETS), TNO expects a price increase from €70 per tonne of CO2 to €110. This is due to a decrease in the number of rights (-4,3% per year). The price of naphtha is expected by TNO to increase from €520 to €570 per tonne due to shrinking refinery capacity and continued demand in the chemical industry, while methanol will become cheaper due to global capacity expansion, lower raw material prices and decreasing demand for fossil variants.