Background nitrogen mood
Caretaker fog and political children
Since the Schoof cabinet fell – but not all convulsive topics have been declared controversial and it will still take some time before new policy can really be introduced – a strange resignation fog has hung over politics. Some politicians are still trying to bring a political 'baby' into the world, while elsewhere discussions are quietly continuing in the hope of another partial agreement.
Not much seems likely to happen in the coming months on dossiers such as nitrogen and manure, but surprises are never excluded. And in any case, outgoing minister of LVVN Femke Wiersma will have to submit a new derogation request in Brussels. At least that is her intention, and agriculture is hoping for it.
The political week started with the launch of the agricultural plan of NSC Member of Parliament Harm Holman. In a major national newspaper he was allowed to explain what he wants. In essence it is the decoration around his plan for land-based agriculture, with fixed 'settlement standards' for livestock farmers, supplemented with zoning for types of agriculture.
Previous generation
The plan tastes a bit like the reheated meal that was put forward much earlier by, among others, former Minister of Agriculture Cees Veerman. So it is not very surprising, and not really refreshing either. It breathes the way of thinking of a previous generation, of people who grew up with the ideas of planned agriculture, fixed key figures and clear diagrams. As we also encounter it in the European Nitrate Directive, which is currently being revised. One of the basic elements in it is a maximum nitrogen standard of 170 kilos per hectare, from animal manure only, for every hectare of European agricultural land, from Lapland to Malta and Cyprus. It has been mentioned before, but something like that could really only have been thought up behind a desk forty years ago.
No 'diversity'
It is clear from the perspective of bureaucracy, but does not take into account the variety of regions, soil, climate, entrepreneurs and types of business operations, nor does it take into account technological developments. Sometimes more than 170 kilos is possible, sometimes less. If agricultural companies, taking into account local circumstances, keep within the environmental limits, they must also be given the necessary flexibility, as is common in many areas today.
Could it be that the people who have all sorts of opinions about agriculture, but have not kept up with the innovations that have taken place, have become stuck in their own thinking and insights?
In any case, the plan that Holman has given a new look is back, together with his private member's bill, and may go a step further, depending on who wants to continue to support it after the October elections.
Warm-ups for and in the Schoof committee
Later in the week, the Schoof committee (officially the MCEN) also met again. Without the PVV, it is now supported by only three parties and is therefore less solid. Just in time for that, a warm-up came to the Lower House, in the form of an investigation by CE Delft and SEO Economic Research, commissioned by the Ministries of Agriculture, Economic Affairs and Finance: up to €14 billion in damage to nature and health annually due to the nitrogen impasse. Now, there is a lot to say about this research, such as that CE Delft is very good at exaggerating all the amounts that have to do with nature. For example, with a compensation manual for nature management, they also ensure that land management organisations and partners do not lack anything for the specified activities per hectare, but the research was nevertheless solid ammunition for some of the negotiating parties. But they were unable to let off steam for long, because a quarrel arose shortly after the opening of the consultation and the hammer was hammered out. The reason was that LTO chairman Ger Koopmans let it slip that LTO had already had a one-two with the Ministry of LVVN in advance, and the other parties did not accept that. At least that is what the reports say. The chance that a new consultation will take place before the summer recess is quite small.
Less emission, more concentration
For agriculture, the proposed transition from a deposit policy to an emission policy is on the table. The cabinet was already aiming for that, based on the coalition agreement, and a majority of parties support it. This can be worked towards, but the consequences of such a transition must also be taken into account. Nitrogen expert Wouter de Heij neatly explains this on his website. Fortunately, he keeps a good feel for the practice and he also knows that what does not go into the air from manure, remains in it. Emission reduction increases the pressure elsewhere. More manure must be placed in a different way. The well-known, but also often undesirable solution among green parties, is to allow more nitrogen from animal manure on the land and reduce the use of nitrogen extracted with external energy (oil and gas). That is still what is happening in Brussels. Again, lawyers and other interest groups are blocking circularity. In the short term, emission reduction therefore means higher disposal costs, or even fewer animals.
State of nature
It is striking that, while the MCEN is talking vigorously about the nitrogen problem, hardly a word is devoted to the basis of the problem: the state of nature. It may be widely known by now that the round of nature target analyses (NDAs), which was held under the last Rutte cabinet, and also the round of nature reports in 2017, have hardly been tested in the field with concrete and clear observations, measurements and counts. There is enough evidence for that, but where is the discussion about it?
Pigs and dairy cattle
Minister Wiersma also sent a number of overviews to the House of Representatives about manure production. For example, there was a report about the manure policy in 2024 and there was a quarterly report on phosphate and nitrogen excretion sent, a forecast for this year. The last part is provided with a somewhat strange explanation by the minister, which does not entirely correspond with the figures provided. These show that the pig sector in particular seems to be going well over the ceilings, undoubtedly thanks to the good meat prices in recent months, while the dairy farming sector will exceed the phosphate ceiling, but will also end up well under the nitrogen ceiling. The minister seems to ignore the latter and chooses to warn the dairy farming sector in particular once again.
The latter must be taken seriously, however, because this industry still has a lot to look forward to, regardless of the outcome of consultations with the sector (with G7 or with LTO and the minister alone) and within the MCEN.
Klaas van der Horst
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