Energy markets were relatively stable this week. Oil fell slightly following new data from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Meanwhile, the gas market remained very stable, but the electricity market normalized.
The price of oil fell slightly this week. On Wednesday, August 13, it reached €66,19. A day earlier, the oil price had reached its lowest level since early June, marking a slight upward correction. Last week, the price was under significant pressure.
A key reason for the relatively low level is the International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest oil report. The agency has revised its oil demand forecast for 2025 down from 869.000 barrels per day to 680.000 barrels per day. The primary reason is a less favorable global economy. Consumption growth, particularly in the strongest growth markets – China, India, and Brazil – will be lower than expected. These three countries are expected to be impacted by the 50% trade tariffs imposed on them by the United States. Demand growth in 2026 will remain unchanged, at an additional 700.000 barrels per day.
Meanwhile, supply is expected to remain stable. In July, global consumption was 105,6 million barrels per day. Production by OPEC+ countries (the OPEC countries and Russia) decreased by 230.000 barrels per day. The cartel is not unanimous: Saudi Arabia cut production by 280.000 barrels, while Iran and the United Arab Emirates actually increased their output. Remarkably, production by countries outside the cartel increased by exactly the same amount, also by 230.000 barrels. This means oil production is 2,2 million barrels lower than last year. A full 1,3 million barrels of this was produced outside OPEC countries.
Diesel price virtually stable
Meanwhile, the diesel price remains relatively stable. On Thursday, August 7, diesel was trading at €121,18 per 100 liters. On Wednesday, August 13, the price was slightly lower, at €120,78.
Gas market stable
The gas price remained relatively stable. On Thursday, August 7, gas was trading on the TTF for €32,95 per megawatt hour. On Wednesday, August 13, the price was marginally lower, at €32,78 per megawatt hour.
For now, the high temperatures in the European Union aren't causing higher gas prices. Warm weather typically increases demand for air conditioning, which can increase gas demand for electricity production. In countries like the Netherlands, with a large number of solar panels, this effect is partially offset by the fact that peak renewable energy production coincides with the hottest part of the day. Furthermore, it helps that supply is currently plentiful, with few disruptions.
However, the filling process continues at full speed, preventing prices from falling to pre-war levels in Ukraine, as they did last year. The average filling rate in the European Union is 72%. In Germany, reserves are only 64% full, and in the Netherlands, it's 62,1%. Things are better in Southern Europe: in France, reserves are 80% full, while in Italy, the filling rate is 83%.
Electricity market normalizes
Meanwhile, electricity prices have risen sharply. Last week, there was a significant dip in electricity prices, between €31 and €75. Since Monday, August 11, prices have returned to levels similar to those of the previous weeks.
Prices aren't particularly high this week; electricity was mainly cheap last week. This was due to substantial production from renewable sources. A whopping 65,3% of all electricity was generated from renewable sources. Remarkably for this time of year, wind also made up a significant share of the energy mix. A total of 28,6% of electricity was generated by wind turbines. This resulted in a share of only 19,5% for gas-fired power plants.