After rising, the oil price has fallen slightly in recent days. Several steps taken by Donald Trump have put the oil market on edge. For example, the independence of the US central bank is at stake. Furthermore, after earlier threats, Trump is now actually punishing India for buying Russian oil by doubling import duties to 50%.
The oil price rose 19% from last Tuesday (August 25) to last Monday (August 5), but has since fallen again by 2% to $67,61 at the time of writing (Wednesday afternoon, August 27). Several uncertainties are at play. For example, there's uncertainty about the effect of the high import tariffs on India, which for now plans to continue importing oil from Russia. Furthermore, there are concerns about the independence of the Fed, the US central bank. After unsuccessfully pressuring Fed Chairman Jay Powell to lower interest rates, Trump is now trying to oust another board member, Lisa Cook, and appoint someone more sympathetic to his position.
On Wednesday (August 27), Trump imposed secondary import tariffs of 50% on most goods from India because the country is buying Russian oil. According to Trump, this indirectly finances the war in Ukraine. India has stated that it will continue to buy oil wherever it can find the best deal. However, according to Bloomberg, refiners plan to limit their purchases of Russian oil to 1,4 to 1,6 million barrels per day in the coming weeks, down from an average of 1,8 million barrels per day. The US is India's most important oil export market.
It's unclear, however, whether Russian oil is the sole reason for the new import tariffs. China, which is also a major buyer of Russian oil, isn't facing the same high tariffs. India previously refused to open its market to American agricultural products.
Diesel
The price of diesel has risen in one week from €122,35 per 100 liters (from 4.000 liters) on Wednesday, August 20, to €123,76 on Wednesday this week.
Natural gas
Other energy markets are also yearning for peace between Russia and Ukraine. For example, the gas market, where Russia was a major supplier to Europe before its invasion of Ukraine. The gas price rose last week to €32,710 per MWh. According to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe, European gas reserves are currently 76% full. Dutch gas reserves are 64% full. According to the National Energy Dashboard, Dutch gas demand will be lower next week than last week.
Stroom
The average daily electricity price on the Epex spot market was consistently high last week, with a low of €63,51 per MWh on Sunday, August 24th, and a high of €99,35 per MWh on Wednesday, August 27th. The National Energy Dashboard predicts that significantly more solar and wind energy will be generated in the coming week than has been typical for this time of year over the past three years.