The oil price seems unaffected by the announcement of a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel. However, according to the US Energy Agency, a barrel of Brent crude will be at least €13 cheaper next year. Gas prices are trending downward, and four different electricity tariffs are expected to ease the burden on the Dutch power grid in the future.
The oil price is volatile. A week ago, oil was at a four-month low of $64,11 per barrel, after reaching a recent peak of $70,13 six days earlier. Currently, the price of a barrel of Brent crude is higher again. For a while, it seemed a downward trend, but at the time of writing (Thursday afternoon, October 9th), the oil price is only 2 cents lower than yesterday, at $66,23 per barrel. The thinking is that optimism about the easing of geopolitical tension in the Middle East will have a downward impact on the oil price. Two years after the Hamas attack on October 7th, Israel and Hamas appear to have reached an agreement on a ceasefire in Gaza and the release of the hostages. The oil market, however, is apparently not so sure yet.
Oil price to $52 a barrel in 2026?
However, if the US Energy Agency (EIA) is to be believed, oil prices will soon begin a downward rally. The EIA expects global oil inventories to increase through 2026, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices. The EIA forecasts that the oil price will fall to $62 per barrel in the last quarter of 2025 and drop another $10 during 2026, according to the EIA's monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook, published this week.
At €124,68 per 100 liters (from 4.000 liters), the LTO diesel price has dropped compared to Thursday a week ago (€125,72), but in the intervening days the price was usually lower. Since May, the price of diesel has risen by leaps and bounds.
More solar energy will be generated throughout the coming week than has been typical for the past three years, according to the National Energy Dashboard's energy forecast. Wind energy fluctuates considerably from day to day. With wind force 2, the yield isn't very high.
Gas price shows downward trend
Gas demand for heating will be lower than last week's average for most of next week. Gas prices on the futures market are showing a downward trend. On October 1st, €31,34 per MWh was the lowest price since May 2024. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe, European gas reserves are almost 83% full, while those in the Netherlands are approaching 72%.