After a very favorable year for spreading liquid manure, the manure market now appears somewhat calmer. Manure transport to storage facilities is now underway, and the pressure in some areas has eased somewhat. However, this doesn't mean the manure market is changing course. How are DCA collection contributions moving this week?
Thanks to the favorable spreading conditions and high manure prices, the maximum amount of liquid manure has been applied, within legal limits, both in spring and autumn. This is also noticeable to manure transporters, who report that it is currently relatively quiet, but sales are continuing steadily.
Currently, cattle manure is being supplied in limited quantities. This isn't surprising considering the time of year. One intermediary states: "You can't say there's little cattle manure available or that it will soon stop being available, but the main pressure is off for now. Many livestock farmers have enough pit space for a while, and it will be a while before they start disposing of manure again."
In the east of the country, but also in Friesland, the situation is different. There's still a lot of manure there that needs to be removed this year. According to intermediaries, whether this manure will actually be removed in the coming period depends entirely on price trends, or whether it will still end up in temporary storage.
Stopper regulation eased somewhat
Historically, manure prices for both pig and cattle manure in the southern regions were often higher than in the rest of the country. However, since the introduction of the phasing-out scheme, intermediaries have noticed that this has provided some relief to the manure market, especially in the south.
Compared to the central Netherlands, DCA collection contributions in the southern Netherlands are currently lower than a year ago. The difference between the regions is significant: in the central Netherlands, the pressure on the manure market is considerably higher than in the south, a trend that has been evident throughout the year. Intermediaries explain this primarily because the majority of livestock farmers participating in the phasing-out scheme come from the south, rather than from the central Netherlands or Friesland.
The fact that manure sales are relatively quiet doesn't mean manure prices will remain stable or even change course. On the contrary, prices have been slowly rising since the end of the spreading season, both for pig manure and cattle manure. This is clearly reflected in the weekly DCA collection fees, primarily for pig manure collection fees in the southern regions. This is mainly due to the additional costs for manure storage and transport, the typical winter rates we see every winter.
In addition, arable farmers with storage facilities and/or pits are aiming for the highest possible price to receive manure. Currently, price increases aren't solely related to pressure or supply. As a result, manure prices have risen slightly compared to the summer months. "I have to raise the rates to cover the additional transport," explains one manure transporter.
Manure market development uncertain
Given the current market conditions, it's difficult to predict how the manure market will develop this winter. Statistically, manure prices typically continue to rise during the winter months, until application is possible again. This is certainly not inconceivable, especially given the current pressure in the central Netherlands. At the same time, the application space is shrinking further due to the phasing out of the derogation.
Much will depend on spring, as has been the case in recent seasons. Many still remember the wet springs, but as we've seen this year, things can change. Another early and relatively dry spring could see manure sales increase rapidly. Especially with current prices, interest in and demand for manure will be high in the spring. Consequently, manure prices could drop rapidly. Of course, that's not the case yet, as winter is still to come.