The war between Russia and Ukraine is increasingly focusing on their respective energy facilities. And that could have consequences for prices. For now, oil and gas prices are relatively low.
At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, October 14th), benchmark Brent crude stood at $61,94 per barrel. This is the lowest level in over five months. Oversupply is putting pressure on the oil price. Moreover, with the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, peace in Gaza appears more stable than initially feared.
The International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly oil market report, released yesterday, confirms that the supply surplus is growing. Global oil supply rose by a whopping 5,6 million barrels per day in September compared to a year ago, according to the report. OPEC+ countries—which have been progressively scaling back their voluntary production cuts in recent months—account for 3,1 million of those barrels.
In its monthly report published Monday, OPEC maintained its forecast for oil demand growth at around 1,3 million barrels per day annually in 2025 and 1,4 million barrels per day in 2026. This sends a positive signal about demand, which could support prices.
Diesel
At €124,42 per 100 liters (from 4.000 liters), the diesel price is around the same level as a week earlier, according to LTO data.
Electricity
The daily average on the Epex spot energy market has been high over the past week. €89,73 per MWh was the lowest level on October 12, and €144,58 was recorded yesterday.
On average, more solar energy is being generated this week than in the past three years, according to the National Energy Dashboard's energy forecast. Wind, however, is lagging behind the three-year average. Except on Saturday, when wind force 3 is forecast.
Gas
According to the National Energy Dashboard's energy forecast, the expected demand for gas for heating is higher next week than last week, with the difference increasing towards the end of the week.
The replenishment of European and Dutch gas reserves appears to be progressing well. Over 83% of gas storage facilities in the EU are full; in the Netherlands, this figure is almost 72%. A year ago, however, EU reserves were 95% full, and Dutch gas storage facilities were approaching 92% full.
The gas price is currently relatively low (at the time of writing, €31,74 per MWh on the TTF futures market). For comparison, it was €41,50 per MWh on October 14, 2024. Whether the price remains at this level depends largely on how severe the winter will be this year.
Another factor could be the war between Russia and Ukraine, which is increasingly affecting each other's energy production. Recent Russian bombardments have damaged gas production in Ukraine. As a result, the country says it has to import expensive European gas. According to CNN, this amounts to more than 4 billion cubic meters. Reports indicate that 20% of Russia's oil production has been affected. Despite peace negotiations and pressure from US President Trump, there is currently no prospect of a swift end to the war.