The Dutch land market is becoming increasingly volatile. While the average price continues to rise, differences between regions and even between neighboring properties are widening. Land value is more than ever a combination of soil conditions, location, market forces, and future prospects.
The latest analysis by the Land Registry and Wageningen Economic Research shows that the spread in land prices has increased significantly over the past ten years. In almost all provinces, the price difference between the cheapest and most expensive plots has widened.
North and South Holland, in particular, stand out. In North Holland, the price ranged from around €67.500 to as much as €108.700 per hectare in 2022–2024. Anyone looking to invest wisely should therefore consider not only the price tag, but also why a hectare costs what it does.
In Flevoland, price differences have increased significantly in recent years. From 2012 to 2014, prices in this province were still very consistent, with a difference of barely €9.500. Since then, prices have not only risen sharply (from €99.000 to €180.000 per hectare), but the differences within the region have also widened significantly, reaching €30.505 in 2022-2024.
Grass or arable land makes a difference
Part of this variation stems from land use. Arable land yields more on average than grassland, simply because arable crops have a higher yield per hectare. On fertile clay soil in the Noordoostpolder or the Zeeland islands, the price per hectare is therefore considerably higher than on sandy soil in the east of the country.
According to the researchers, the average variation nationwide is around 28% for grassland and 30% for arable land – a difference that is largely explained by the higher fluctuations in arable farming areas.
Factors like drainage, plot shape, plot size, and accessibility also influence the price. A large, rectangular plot with good drainage simply yields more than a fragmented plot with wet corners.
Furthermore, the location relative to the farm is important. A home plot next to the farm is worth more than a field plot further away. And where expansion land is scarce—for example, in areas with extensive greenhouse horticulture or nature reserves—competition among farmers further drives up prices.
Expectations and policies play a role
Land prices aren't just a matter of physical quality. Future prospects also play a significant role. Land with the potential for repurposing, for example, in urban expansion or energy projects, quickly acquires a speculative price tag. Conversely, nature conservation or nitrogen measures can actually reduce the value.
The result is that within a single province—or even within a single village—huge price differences can arise. In some regions, plots with a price difference of more than €15.000 per hectare are located just a few kilometers apart. For example, in both Groningen and North Holland, there are areas with land prices in the lowest price range, but also regions in the highest price range. In contrast, in areas like Salland and the Achterhoek region, price differences are relatively limited.
What can you do with it as a farmer?
For farmers looking to buy or sell land, the message is clear: look beyond national or provincial averages. National figures provide an indication of trends, but say little about the value of your own or your neighbor's land. Therefore, it's important to pay attention to soil type and drainage. This is especially true for peatlands or wetter sandy soils.
Location and accessibility are also important; accessibility and proximity to commercial buildings are significant factors. Buyers and sellers should also consider local market pressure; in regions where little land becomes available, prices can quickly skyrocket. Finally, policy developments are a key factor in pricing; repurposing, nature reserves, or nitrogen measures can significantly alter the price picture.