Background Nitrogen mood
With Jetten turning the steering wheel hard to the left again?
With around 18% of the total vote, D66 almost certainly became the largest party in the country, but even if it comes in second, it will likely be the party that takes the lead in forming a new cabinet. This could have significant consequences for agriculture and rural areas, as D66's views on these issues differ significantly from those of the winner and second-place finisher in the previous election.
This doesn't necessarily mean that a coalition led by D66 will immediately change course. More parties will need to adapt, but it's becoming increasingly common to say that it's time to significantly change course on nitrogen policy, and thus accelerate the old approach of the last Rutte cabinets.
Climate Minister
For D66 party leader Rob Jetten, this will feel familiar and perhaps even tempting. After all, under Rutte, he was a passionate climate minister and policy co-designer. Hopefully, as a likely prime minister, he'll be a little less ideological. Perhaps he'll have learned something, although a shift like Bill Gates' isn't immediately necessary.
Land to your liking
Given Jetten's credentials, it's also important to realize that 18% of the vote is a winning number in the current circumstances, but not enough to control a country. The other participating parties also have a say. Unfortunately for non-urban areas in the Netherlands, few of the coalition candidates truly portray themselves as farmer-friendly or agriculturally friendly. Unless the CDA or VVD are considered farmer-friendly. The BBB doesn't have much of a chance of participating in government again or playing a significant role in the House of Representatives. However, it does remain strong in the Senate. A party like JA21 might have a chance as part of a right-wing coalition.
Not only with nitrogen
For the time being it is all speculation and also a bit of disappointment to look back, because why did the stranded coalition not achieve more? An interesting conversation Marianne Zwagerman discussed this with State Secretary Jean Rummenie (BBB) this week. Rummenie had taken it upon himself to restructure nature policy on a different and broader basis than his predecessors had. Less focus on nitrogen alone and more on a more balanced set of "pressure factors," as prescribed by the European directive and also by European case law. He admitted that a mere eleven months' term is insufficient to achieve such a shift and get new, better nature legislation adopted.
Civil servants against their boss
Especially not when the opposition within the civil service is fierce. Rummenie persevered despite everything and, against the advice of his officials, commissioned Amsterdam professor Ronald Meester to review the current system, identify weaknesses, and propose improvements based purely on scientific principles. Last week, Masters report to the House of Representatives, again accompanied by a letter stating that Rummenie had ignored the advice of his officials. It's all permissible in the Netherlands, and that's fine. As long as it remains clear that politicians have the final say. It would have been nice if the Minister of LVVN had also experienced a bit more of the State Secretary's imperturbability.
All ignored for current system
In practice, politicians often ignore advice: from civil servants, the Council of State (advisory department), and even from state commissions. Rummenie and Meester point out that a total of three state commissions in the past fifteen to twenty years have advised against the current structure of Dutch nature and environmental policy, with an Aerius system, KDWs, and more. Yet, not only has it been implemented, but it has also been widely embraced by ministries, provincial governments, and a long list of environmental consulting firms.
Models rattle, but provide stability and work
Although environmental and nature models are riddled with uncertainties, they provide many civil servants with a sense of security, reinforced by advice from ecologists' offices, which derive their livelihood from working with these models. Model results also provide a fertile breeding ground for eco-legalism. Unfortunately, this can exist without considering the facts of nature and actual measurements. These often threaten to undermine model results and therefore encounter resistance, and not without reason.
So where is it going now? Some politicians believe a new coalition can be formed before Christmas, one that will restore stability to the Netherlands and give society new momentum. Caretaker Prime Minister Dick Schoof doesn't believe it. Nor does Rummenie. They think they'll have to keep working for another six months or more, even though they actually rely on only a tiny fraction of the House of Representatives, also around 18%.
Klaas van der Horst
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