No one has applied for the tender for a new wind farm in the North Sea in the Netherlands. The government had already anticipated this, as there is little interest in investing significantly in offshore wind farm construction due to rising costs and lower demand for electricity than previously expected. The fact that no responses to the tender were received confirms this. The OPEC+ countries will pause their oil production increases next year, and China is avoiding Russian oil due to sanctions, while the oil price appears unaffected by all this.
At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, November 4th), the price of Brent crude per barrel was $64,16. Compared to a week earlier ($64,40), this was a slight decrease, and also compared to Monday's price ($64,89). The oil price remained relatively stable throughout the week, peaking at $65,00 on October 30th.
The eight OPEC+ countries—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—will again increase production by 137.000 barrels per day in December. However, in 2026, the oil cartel will pause the easing of the voluntary production cut for the entire first quarter. This contradicts OPEC's own forecast in its October monthly oil market report. According to the organization, global oil demand will grow by 1,4 million barrels per day next year.
The World Bank, on the other hand, sees a slowdown in global demand growth. The International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly oil market report, released in October, confirms that the supply surplus is increasing. According to that report, global oil supply rose by a whopping 5,6 million barrels per day in September compared to a year ago. A Reuters poll conducted in September projects a surplus of 1,6 million barrels per day in 2026. OPEC cites "seasonal influences" as the reason for keeping oil production stable in the first quarter of 2026.
China avoids Russian oil
Meanwhile, Russia's oil production remains under pressure. This is partly due to Ukrainian drones that have hit refineries and export terminals, and partly due to new sanctions imposed by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the EU. According to Bloomberg, the sanctions are having an effect, and China is avoiding Russian oil. The news agency reports that consultancy Rystad Energy estimates that China is buying about 400.000 barrels less per day, 45% of its total oil imports from Russia.
Diesel price
The diesel price on November 4 was €129,29 per 100 liters (from 4.000 liters), which is slightly lower than a week earlier.
Gas filling rate remains much lower than last year
At the time of writing, the gas price on the TTF futures market stands at €32,25 per MWh. Just like last week, the European gas fill rate remains at 83%, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. A year ago, it was 95%. Dutch gas reserves are rising slightly further to 73% (last year, it was close to 89%).
According to the National Energy Dashboard, gas demand for heating will be lower throughout the coming week than the previous week.
From money allocated to wind farm tenders to subsidies
The daily average on the European Power Exchange (Epex Spot) electricity spot market varied over the past week from €89,42 on October 29 to €43,48 per MWh on November 1.
Electricity prices fluctuate significantly, with negative prices often appearing, as shown in the Epex Spot graph. This is one of the problems facing wind farm builders; they have no guarantee of recouping their invested costs, which have also risen dramatically. Demand for electricity is also disappointing.
For the first time in the Netherlands, a tender has failed. The tender for the Nederwiek IA wind farm site closed last Thursday (October 30) without a single bid. "This confirms the impression that we have entered a market situation in which government support is crucial to prevent the development of offshore wind energy from stalling," wrote Minister of Climate and Green Growth Sophie Hermans in a letter to the House of Representatives. Since 2018, wind farm developers have not received any subsidies; in fact, they paid millions to build them.
Earlier this year, it was also decided to postpone the tenders for IJmuiden Ver Gamma-A and Gamma-B. The Netherlands is not alone in this. Other European countries, such as Germany, Denmark, the United Kingdom, and Belgium, have also failed or been postponed due to limited market interest, Hermans notes. The minister recently presented the Offshore wind energy action planThe caretaker government is allocating more than €1 billion for offshore wind farms.
New permit round
A new permitting round will follow in 2026, subject to conditions set out in the action plan. For example, it is expected that wind farm builders will be eligible for a subsidy by January 2026 at the latest. The caretaker government is also stimulating electricity demand by extending the Indirect Cost Compensation (IKC-ETS) scheme until 2028, resulting in lower electricity costs for businesses.
As mentioned, clarity about the payback model is also important for wind energy developers. CFDs (Contract for Difference) are being considered. In short, these involve a long-term financial contract that absorbs price fluctuations on the energy market. A new cabinet will have to decide on this. This likely won't help the next tender, as it's being referred to as "from 2027," while the intention is to issue a new tender in 2026.
Energy forecast
Existing wind farms won't be generating much wind energy this week, as the National Energy Dashboard's energy forecast shows significantly less wind energy will be generated from Thursday through Monday than the average over the past three years. Solar energy, on the other hand, will be plentiful.