Background Nitrogen mood
The dust of elections and the reckoning
The dust of the election results is slowly settling. All the votes have been counted, informant Wouter Koolmees has held initial exploratory talks with the various parliamentary groups, and next Wednesday the new House of Representatives will be officially installed. After that, we'll just have to wait and see what happens next.
The answer is: yes and no. The winners in Parliament are exploring who they can govern with, but the formation process could still take some time. The losers are licking their wounds and still need to come to terms with themselves.
Retreat and reckoning
For the NSC, it's clear: it's gone. Frans Timmermans has sounded the retreat at the GroenLinks-PvdA, perhaps postponing a moment of reckoning. At the PVV, Geert Wilders needs to carefully consider his future profile, and the BBB is also in disarray. The party suffered a significant loss of votes, and lead candidate Caroline van der Plas herself didn't escape unscathed. She's no longer the undisputed leader. Her number 2, Mona Keijzer, received the same number of votes as her, and that speaks volumes. Voters are questioning whether Caroline is still the best choice for the party. Mona is clearer, more decisive, and often delivers more. According to Keijzer herself, she's not seeking Caroline's place, and that may be true. It's also wiser to put it that way.
But whatever happens, the BBB doesn't want to participate in government again for the time being, Caroline told informant Wouter Koolmees. The outgoing BBB ministers will finish their work, and that's that.
Hopefully, they'll still have the energy for it. One is still combative and motivated, the other doesn't seem quite as on top of things anymore.
Official playtime
Yet this can be important for agriculture, for example, because caretaker terms can often turn into a bureaucratic playground. The caretaker minister is already thinking about the period after their ministerial or state secretaryship, is already applying for jobs, or is otherwise less on top of things and no longer makes things so difficult for civil servants. Reading documents and asking follow-up questions becomes less frequent. Meanwhile, there's still a lot at stake for the livestock farming sector, as noted, for example, by Agraction in a response to the 8th Nitrate Directive Action Programme.
The House of Representatives will discuss this in early December. According to Agractie, the proposed program contains some unusual elements, such as temporarily lowered standards for livestock farming due to water quality concerns.
Plan minister and CDM
If, after a few years, it appears that the water quality has improved, the old standard can be reinstated. A similar mechanism is also proposed for the former NV areas (now affected areas). An accompanying advice The Committee of Experts on the Fertilizer Act (CDM) reports, however, that the nitrate standard is already not being exceeded in the vast majority of places. What's the point of making life so difficult for the livestock sector, you might wonder? The CDM also notes that the higher nitrate load is not coming from livestock farming, but is caused by leaching from arable farming, particularly arable crops. The new House of Representatives could still rectify this.
Greenpeace
This week, Minister Wiersma sent something completely different to the House of Representatives: a scenario study about what to do if Greenpeace wins an appeal against the government sometime next year concerning climate goals and the care for some thirty vulnerable red-listed species. Earlier this year, Greenpeace won a case on this matter at first instance. It's quite possible that Greenpeace will also win on appeal, as the now-caretaker government has failed to remove, for example, the current Critical Deposition Values (KDWs), which must be used for calculations in Aerius, from the law. And Aerius itself is still included in the law, even though it's becoming increasingly clear that both are riddled with assumptions and uncertainties.
Palms
It is not entirely clear what message the minister wanted to send with her letter, but it is a reminder that agriculture still has a lot to look forward to.
Remarkably, one of the two directors of Greenpeace, Andy Palmen, announced just this week that he's leaving. After ten years in charge, he's had enough. Perhaps aspiring Prime Minister Rob Jetten is still looking for a new minister for climate affairs.
Heijmans and Bouwend Nederland
It might be a matter of patience, as the first round of talks between potential coalition partners hasn't yielded much so far. Agriculture doesn't seem likely to be a stumbling block. Few parties want to make this a sticking point, but on the other hand, there might be room for a new level-headed approach. Why should the Netherlands be so bogged down in its own nitrogen system, asked Ton Hillen, CEO of construction company Heijmans, on BNR Nieuwsradio last week. This is a very different take from Arno Visser of Bouwend Nederland, but then again, he is a prominent VVD member.
Klaas van der Horst
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