Global oil supply is increasing, while demand is not growing as rapidly. Nevertheless, oil prices are remaining relatively stable. Geopolitical developments, such as the military operation in Venezuela that Trump is threatening, are being closely monitored. Regarding Dutch gas reserves, the target for filling has not been met. However, the caretaker government does not foresee any problems with security of supply, even if we have an extremely cold winter.
A Ukrainian missile and drone attack temporarily halted oil exports from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, Russia, on Friday. Oil exports resumed on Sunday. According to Reuters, this amounts to 2,2 million barrels per day, 2% of global supply. Since August, Ukraine has intensified drone attacks on Russian refineries. The attack sent oil prices plummeting from $63,01 on Thursday to $64,39 on Friday. At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, November 18), the price per barrel is back to $63,83. Concerns about oversupply are keeping oil prices in check.
Meanwhile, analysts are closely monitoring geopolitical developments. For example, Iran seized an oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman last week. Furthermore, it remains to be seen what Trump will do in oil-producing Venezuela under the guise of an anti-drug operation.
Russian oil prices have fallen due to US sanctions against Russia's two largest oil companies, including Lukoil and Rosneft, which take effect on November 21. Bloomberg reports that the discount compared to the Brent crude benchmark averages $23,52. According to US media, President Donald Trump said on Sunday that Republicans are working on a bill that would impose sanctions on any country doing business with Russia. The bill would allow Trump to impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries that purchase Russian energy products, such as China and India. Trump said that this could also apply to Iran.
The IEA's monthly oil report, released last week, showed that global oil inventories rose by 77,7 million barrels (2,6 million barrels per day) in September to the highest level since July 2021. "Global oil market balances appear to be becoming increasingly skewed, as global oil supply increases while oil demand growth remains modest by historical standards," the IEA said.
The U.S. Energy Agency (EIA) has revised its oil price forecast for next year upward by $3 compared to its previous monthly outlook due to new estimates regarding oil reserves in China and sanctions against Russia. However, the EIA expects oil inventories to continue rising in 2026, driving down prices. The new forecast is for the oil price to average $54 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026 and $55 for the year. The agency expects an annual average of $69 per barrel for 2025.
Diesel price
At €132,44 per 100 litres from 4.000 litres, diesel costs less than a week ago (€133,28 on 12 November).
US to export a quarter more LNG in 2025
The U.S. Energy Agency (EIA) is also raising its LNG export forecast by 3% compared to last month. The agency estimates that the United States will export 4,6 billion cubic meters of LNG per day this year. That's a quarter more than last year. The EIA expects U.S. LNG exports to increase by another 10% next year.
gas price
Gas cost €31,62 per MWh on the TTF on November 18th. That's more than last Wednesday, November 12th (€30,93).
According to the National Energy Dashboard's energy forecast, gas demand will be significantly higher throughout the coming week than last week. Starting Friday, minimum temperatures below zero are expected.
The fill rate of European gas reserves has decreased slightly, from 83% to 82%. In the Netherlands, gas reserves are also somewhat less full, from 73% to 72%. The 80% fill target was not achieved on November 1st, as the Dutch gas reserves were 73% full at that time. In the rest of the EU, the fill rate has also been lagging behind since the filling season began in April. "Due to price developments, it became economically more attractive for market participants in October to withdraw gas from storage – earlier than usual – than to inject it," said Minister of Climate and Green Growth Sophie Hermans in a letter to the House of Representatives last week.
The new EU filling requirement for the Netherlands is 74%, which must be achieved sometime between October 1 and December 1, and may also be 64% if conditions are difficult (such as price developments, which are currently the problem). Energie Beheer Nederland (EBN) is responsible for replenishing gas reserves to the extent that the market does not. In October, EBN's filling requirement was again increased from 25 to 28 TWh (previously 12 TWh in 2024).
"Based on current insights, there are currently no concerns regarding security of supply," Hermans writes. Only in an extremely cold winter (such as in 1995/96) could a limited shortage arise. The government sees ways to mitigate this.
Stroom
The average daily electricity price was fairly stable but relatively high last week. The lowest daily average on the spot electricity market, the European Power Exchange (Epex Spot), was €73,10 per MWh on November 12, and the highest was €99,62 per MWh on November 18.
Considerably more solar energy will be generated in the coming week than in the three-year average, according to the National Energy Dashboard's energy forecast. The wind will also be strong on some days, but it will also be below average for a number of days.