LTO/Dirk Hol

Background Nitrogen mood

'Solution' for nitrogen in formation above customization?

21 November 2025 - Klaas van der Horst - 12 comments

A minor controversy surrounding a not entirely politically correct informant from the D66 party briefly disrupted preparations for a cabinet formation at the end of last week. However, the process is continuing apace. Dilan Yesilgöz accepted Hans Wijers's apology, and the prospective coalition partners Rob Jetten and Henri Bontenbal received various experts and advocates between their joint meetings.

It was striking that they both Wednesday If there were discussions on climate-related matters (agriculture, environment, and construction) on Friday, then they would be there. On Wednesday, LTO chairman Ger Koopmans was invited to join the discussion, along with a director from the NAJK (Netherlands Youth Youth Association). He was invited to defend his emissions reduction plan, which has been coordinated with the Hague umbrella organizations of provinces, municipalities, and water boards. He also came with IPO chair Ina Adema. Another nitrogen, agriculture, and environmental day is planned for next week.

Is LTO fighting hard enough?
This means a relatively high level of attention is being paid to this issue. This is perhaps logical, as the entire nitrogen issue has been stalled for so long, and a solution is certainly needed. Many farmers hope this won't result in an outcome that will impose a major challenge on them, but it could still be a very tense situation. And then it's just a matter of hoping that LTO will fight hard enough for them. That's what ZLTO chairman Wim Bens said on the day of Koopmans's meeting with Jetten and Bontenbal announced his resignation, does not have to be seen as a bad sign, but agriculture looks with concern at anything that could be a signal.   

Macro perspective or an eye for practice? 
Statements by both Jetten and Bontenbal suggest that, for them, a solution in itself is more important than a sharp, customized package. Given the state of the discussion, it's not surprising that a substantial number of their visitors also express a similar viewpoint. One of them is Utrecht-based environmental lawyer Chris Backes, professor of Environmental Law. He believes that removing issues like Critical Deposition Values ​​(KDWs) from the law will solve nothing, according to weekly magazine BoerderijFrom a macro perspective, that may be partly true, but it does have implications for how and where a solution to the nitrogen problem is sought. Moreover, in the not-so-distant past, Backes himself has also occasionally more nuanced and different excited.

Data or broader view
Environmental group Greenpeace, which also wanted to make itself heard, moved this week a research report This was put forward by data analyst Ton Brouwer, who specializes in GIS reporting (working with digital maps). According to this report, the nitrogen problem can be solved by establishing 1-kilometer protection zones around all areas (and clearing them of agricultural land). This is all within the current remaining assumptions. Where have we heard something like this before? Apparently, the provincial authorities in Limburg are already working on something similar.

It looks like a study by a North Holland data tinkerer, who calculated that after raising the arithmetic lower limit, thousands of livestock farms could expand, which several newspapers in alarming terms Acquisitions. Unfortunately, the "researcher" forgot that other signals still need to be approved and that a permitting process still needs to be completed. From behind a computer, everything sometimes seems a bit too clear-cut.

Core and shell
It's one thing to bring all sorts of experts to the information table and, as D66 and CDA, to form a joint vision, but a strong new government requires more than just two parties with 46 seats. It also seems unwise to sail too far ahead of the coalition partners yet to be called in. Otherwise, you risk ending up with a coalition with two types of partners: a core group and a shell. Psychologically, it's wise to demonstrate that there are parties willing to work together, but it shouldn't devolve into a power play that actually deters others. We'll undoubtedly see how the talks progress in the coming weeks.

Schoof must save derogation
Against the backdrop of all this, outgoing Prime Minister Dick Schoof is taking it upon himself to make a last-ditch effort to secure the new derogation for the Netherlands. According to De Telegraaf, this must happen at the upcoming European Summit with Von der Leyen. The bargaining chip is supposed to be Dutch support for the Mercosur agreement. Whether this has any chance of success is doubtful. After all, Schoof is no Viktor Orbán, who, despite all the criticism, often gets his way to a great extent. Minister Wiersma has File not been able to make much progress yet.  

The Minister of Agriculture did publish a new overview of Dutch manure production up to and including the third quarter. Compared to the previous quarter, there is an upward trend again, but it doesn't lead to any particularly surprising insights. After factoring in the results of the LBV regulations, a remaining target of 2,1 million kilos remains, primarily for phosphate reduction in the dairy sector, it is reported.

Heat model applied to methane
More surprising is the outcome of a new calculation of a heat production model by WUR. It concerns the CIGR model (Originally developed by the Commission Internationale du Génie Rural (CIGR) and therefore intended to calculate the heat production of different animal categories. This model was later "upgraded" to a CO2 production model. From the new calculations, Wageningen concludes that they have previously underestimated CO2 and other emissions from cattle by 16%. Unfortunately for the farmers, the updated model indicates that even more methane emissions must be reduced. Whether this should be achieved with the help of Bovaer, or preferably in another way, they do not specify.
 

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Klaas van der Horst

He is a dairy market specialist at DCA Market Intelligence. He researches market news and trends and interprets developments.

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12 comments
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sefO 21 November 2025
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url = https: // www.boerenbusiness[.nl/artikel/10914652/oplossing-voor-stikstof-bij-formatie-boven-maatwerk]'Solution' for nitrogen formation above customization?[/url]
We know the positions of D66, and the CDA, but Bontenbal seems like a follower to me, talking nonsense and I've only heard one solution, and it sounds awfully similar to D66's. LTO, on the other hand, has stayed at the table too much and for too long, as has been said many times. LTO can no longer make a credible fist. What LTO keeps messing up, other farmers' representatives have to try to straighten out through the courts. LTO doesn't understand and doesn't want to join forces to make it clear to Bontenbal, before it's too late, in no uncertain terms why LTO has always stuck with the CDA. To date, LTO has screwed everything up, and the farmers are once again the big losers.
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time bomb 22 November 2025
And if the VVD goes along, then the Green Party/Labour Party will too, and then all hell will break loose, because I don't trust the CDA either. Bontenbal was the first to say that expropriation can't be ruled out, so Jette has known that for a long time. It looks grim for Dutch agriculture and horticulture in the broadest sense of the word. BBB has also made a mess of things. Big mouth, but they've gone too far with the PVV, which is something many governing parties are getting annoyed by. See the result. GREEN.
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in hiding 22 November 2025
So????????????
Subscriber
juun 22 November 2025
Fortunately, the current impasse is good for livestock farming. No one can expand or change their barns. If you're fed up, accept the money and do something else. Or go abroad.
Subscriber
sefO 23 November 2025
Putting BBB in the corner is unfair. BBB has its own migration policy, realistically. I think the PVV has a more activist approach. BBB was thwarted for two years by its coalition partners, but the CDA and LTO also did everything they could to avoid giving BBB credit. Just imagine if we hadn't had BBB. I'm very curious to see what LTO comes up with now that they have to deal with the CDA.
Subscriber
quite coarse 24 November 2025
Mercosur as a bargaining chip??? From woodlouse to shit. At least Mercosur would then affect the entire sector, so thanks in advance for the total downfall. I hope I'm wrong.
Subscriber
Jantje 24 November 2025
SjefO wrote:
Putting BBB in the corner is unfair. BBB has its own migration policy, realistically. I think the PVV has a more activist approach. BBB was thwarted for two years by its coalition partners, but the CDA and LTO also did everything they could to avoid giving BBB credit. Just imagine if we hadn't had BBB. I'm very curious to see what LTO comes up with now that they have to deal with the CDA.
The current LTO leader is a CDA member.....
Subscriber
juun 24 November 2025
pretty rude wrote:
Mercosur as a bargaining chip??? From woodlouse to shit. At least Mercosur would then affect the entire sector, so thanks in advance for the total downfall. I hope I'm wrong.
Well, livestock farming has always been favored over the rest of agriculture. This just proves it.
Subscriber
pieter 24 November 2025
SjefO, come off your property sometime, it'll broaden your horizons! There's so much space for farming across the border. Large, connected plots of land. It'll suit you perfectly.
perseverer 25 November 2025
pieter wrote:
SjefO, come off your property sometime, it'll broaden your horizons! There's so much space for farming across the border. Large, connected plots of land. It'll suit you perfectly.
It's also disappointing across the border. The soil quality is poorer, and that's where the whining starts. You shouldn't always think it's better across the border, and I'll just run away from problems. It has to be solved here, and that's it!
ed 27 November 2025
juun wrote:
pretty rude wrote:
Mercosur as a bargaining chip??? From woodlouse to shit. At least Mercosur would then affect the entire sector, so thanks in advance for the total downfall. I hope I'm wrong.
Well, livestock farming has always been favored over the rest of agriculture. This just proves it.
What is favored? Arable farming usually comes out with the biggest advantages.
Subscriber
juun 27 November 2025
ed wrote:
juun wrote:
pretty rude wrote:
Mercosur as a bargaining chip??? From woodlouse to shit. At least Mercosur would then affect the entire sector, so thanks in advance for the total downfall. I hope I'm wrong.
Well, livestock farming has always been favored over the rest of agriculture. This just proves it.
What is favored? Arable farming usually comes out with the biggest advantages.
Let's start with subsidies for emission reduction from barns, which have now been scrapped. And now we can stop the subsidies altogether. Arable farming doesn't benefit from that.
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