The gas price is at its lowest in over a year and a half and has fallen below €30 per MWh for the first time since then. The likelihood of the low level of Dutch gas reserves posing a problem is unlikely, given the good availability of gas and the mild winter months that appear to be approaching. The oil price is also plummeting. This is largely due to the US peace plan for the war in Ukraine, which is being intensively revised.
At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, November 25th), the Brent crude oil price is at $62,18 per barrel, its lowest level since October 21, 2025, more than a month ago. This is primarily due to the US peace plan to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. If sanctions against Russia are lifted, more Russian oil will enter the global market, even though there is already a surplus.
Not that everything is already a done deal. Zelensky's biggest sticking point with the original 28-point plan is that the country would have to cede territory to Russia that it has occupied. European leaders see little merit in the idea of reducing Ukraine's army. Doubts about Putin's reliability are also being expressed, including by French President Macron.
Regardless, the prospect of peace and the lifting of sanctions is putting downward pressure on oil prices. Furthermore, the US central bank will meet again on December 10th to make an interest rate decision. The expectation is that the Fed will lower interest rates again, which would stimulate the US economy and thus increase oil demand.
Diesel cheaper
Diesel prices are also showing a downward trend. Last Wednesday (November 19th), they were €137,25 per 100 liters (from 4.000 liters). On Tuesday afternoon, November 25th, they were €131,45 per 100 liters.
Gas price drops below 30 euros
Lifting sanctions against Russia could also restart gas supplies from the country. However, these aren't completely halted. Despite the sanctions, 13% of the gas used in the EU still comes from Russia. Currently, the US is the Netherlands' largest gas supplier, in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
Norway is a close second with its gaseous natural gas. According to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the US and Qatar's LNG export capacity is expanding dramatically, with the potential for an additional 300 billion cubic meters of LNG per year by 2030.
As previously reported, the levels of European and Dutch gas reserves are lagging behind last year. According to the caretaker government, this will not pose a problem for security of supply. Only an extremely cold winter could cause a "limited shortage," but the government believes this can be mitigated.
An extremely cold winter seems unlikely according to weather forecasts. According to Weeronline, there's even a good chance of a mild winter. Statistically, there's a 75% chance of a mild winter anyway, as nineteen winters since 2000 have been milder than average, the weather service states.
Furthermore, there are no indications of truly cold winter weather in December, according to Weeronline, although frost is possible during clear nights at the beginning of the month. January and February are expected to be significantly milder than normal according to seasonal models. However, the scenarios for January vary. The weather service indicates that it may still be somewhat colder that month due to cold easterly winds.
At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, November 25), the gas price on the TTF gas futures market is at its lowest in over a year and a half (April 29, 2024) at €29,29 per MWh.
Electricity price shows outliers
The European Power Exchange (Epex Spot) experienced two very high daily averages last week. On the spot electricity market, the price was €141,46 per MWh on Friday, November 21, and €147,57 per MWh on Tuesday, November 25.