The manure market is in a quiet phase, trading-wise, with mostly stable prices. Nevertheless, market tension is building, as milk and pig prices are rapidly declining. The likelihood of further rising manure prices this winter is therefore no longer very high.
The manure market has been tense for some time due to record-high prices. And that will not ease in the near future. The decline in milk prices is becoming an increasingly important issue in the market. Based on the current raw material value of milk, payout prices will fall below €40 per kilo in the new year. Processors are trying to prepare themselves for this and are also telling their suppliers that the milk price will start with a "three" in 2026.
Lower earning capacity
De critical milk price The price accountants in the Netherlands are calculating is €46,50 per 100 kilos. This creates a significant gap between benefits and costs. Moreover, due to the large volume of milk on the global market, recovery is unlikely anytime soon. Pig prices have also plummeted again in recent weeks, with prices at their lowest level since 2022. In other words, the earning capacity in the dairy and pig farming sectors is coming under pressure after years of good results.
In recent years, livestock farmers have been able to afford the high manure prices, albeit reluctantly. However, this will soon become more difficult. Therefore, manure intermediaries don't foresee any further price increases for the time being. At the same time, arable farmers, due to similarly low yields, are more focused than ever on maximizing their manure revenue. They're aiming for €25 per cubic meter; they won't store it for much less. This means that manure prices will have a solid base this winter.
Lid on prices
Spring will reveal the market's direction. As always, the mood will depend heavily on the weather. Starting in 2026, the derogation will be further phased out, limiting dairy farms to applying 170 kilograms of nitrogen per hectare from animal manure. The market isn't anticipating that the Netherlands will receive a new derogation. Despite the anticipated tighter application space, the reduced earning capacity in the livestock sector is keeping a lid on manure prices for the time being. Manure prices above €40 per cubic meter are currently no longer a realistic scenario this winter, while this was previously considered.
The DCA collection fee for pig manure in the South of the Netherlands this week is €33 per cubic meter. In Central Netherlands, it is €36,33 per cubic meter. The collection fees for cattle manure this week are €30,33 per cubic meter for the South of the Netherlands, and €35,67 per cubic meter in Central Netherlands.
Click here to view DCA fertilizer prices by region.