An aging sector, skyrocketing land prices, and stagnant policies mean that farm succession is facing increasing challenges. This threatens not only the survival of individual farms but also that of the Dutch agrifood system as a whole.
The coming years will be crucial. Without clear frameworks and better access to land and financing, a silent exodus of entrepreneurs threatens—with major consequences for food production, the landscape, and rural liveability.
Risks of postponing succession:
Dutch agriculture faces a structural challenge: a growing number of entrepreneurs want to retire, but there are no successors. New research from ABN Amro shows that two out of three entrepreneurs expect to hand over their businesses within ten years.
The situation is particularly dire in agriculture: 21,5% of agricultural entrepreneurs are now 65 or older, the highest percentage of all sectors. At the same time, a large proportion of those closing down their businesses have no concrete succession plans. The bank warns that this jeopardizes the continuity of food production and the vitality of rural areas.
Strong family ties
Agriculture is traditionally a sector with strong family ties, and the figures reflect this: in 90% of cases where farmers do have succession plans, it involves a family member. Yet, succession is no longer a given. The sector is aging rapidly—only 10% of farmers are under 40, while 60% are 55 and older—and many young people are forgoing a future in the family business due to uncertain policies, high costs, and a lack of prospects.
The emotional barrier also plays a significant role. Farmers find it more difficult to relinquish control than entrepreneurs in other sectors. Half of agricultural entrepreneurs explicitly cite this as one of the biggest obstacles to business transfers, especially because the business, family, and home are often a single entity.
Positive results in recent years mask the structural problems. Extremely high land prices make taking over a farm nearly unaffordable for young arable farmers. Transfers are often only possible through structures such as leasehold, leasehold, subordinated loans, or through initiatives like Aardpeer and Land van Ons, which aim to improve access to land. Without tax incentives like the BOR (Bed and Breakfast) and DSR (Downloaded Farming Scheme), succession becomes simply impossible for many families.
Shrinkage in livestock farming
ABN Amro expects the agricultural sector to experience volume declines in 2026 and 2027. This is due in part to declining livestock numbers, restrictive regulations, and rising costs. This also makes the transition less attractive for young entrepreneurs.
Milk production rebounded strongly in 2025 after a previous dip, but according to ABN Amro, this is short-lived. The bank expects the sector to shrink from 2026 onwards due to a further decline in livestock numbers and increasing regulations. The most urgent bottleneck is the land-based requirement in 2032, which obliges dairy farms to dispose of manure on their own land or in the immediate vicinity.
For successors, this means they not only have to finance the farm but also need additional hectares—at historically high land prices. At the same time, permitting has virtually ground to a halt in many regions. The combination of costs, uncertainty, and policy pressure is leaving many young livestock farmers doubting whether there is even a future for them.
The problems aren't exclusive to the Netherlands. The European Commission recently presented a strategy to double the number of young farmers in the EU to 24% by 2040. The EU considers young farmers crucial for food security and viable rural areas. In the Netherlands, however, this rejuvenation is still a long way off. With only 10% of young farmers, our country is among the lowest-ranking.
Start planning in time
The bank emphasizes that starting planning early is essential. Not only to avoid tax and legal pitfalls, but also to create space for a gradual transfer. Such a phased process can actually offer financiers and successors more options, and instills confidence in employees and clients.
"Many entrepreneurs don't realize in time how complex business succession can be," says Gerarda Westerhuis, sector economist for Leisure and Retail at ABN Amro. "Entrepreneurs would be wise to consider various scenarios."