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Ukraine's largest wheat harvest since 2022
Russian market consultancy SovEcon believes Ukraine could reap its largest wheat harvest since 2022 next year. Both acreage and yields are estimated to be higher.
SovEcon today published its first forecast for Ukraine's wheat harvest in 2026. Production is estimated at 24,6 million tons, almost 7% higher than the 2025 harvest. This makes it the largest harvest since Russia invaded the country.
The market consultancy notes that winter wheat is being planted rapidly this fall. This has resulted in a larger area being sown with this wheat variety. SovEcon targets an increase of 200.000 hectares compared to the previous growing season, bringing the total to 5,2 million hectares. Spring wheat cultivation is estimated at 200.000 hectares, and this crop will therefore remain unchanged.
According to SovEcon, the larger winter wheat acreage and the smooth progress of the sowing operations combined have resulted in a higher harvest forecast. The yield is currently estimated at 4,58 tons per hectare, which is approximately 3% higher than last year.
Most regions received sufficient rainfall last month. Only in the east were there areas that received less precipitation. Overall, conditions are favorable for crop development, according to the market consultancy.
"The recent excessive rainfall created challenges for the Ukrainian maize harvest and the sowing of winter crops in parts of Romania and Bulgaria, but it significantly improved conditions for winter wheat in Ukraine. This strengthens the outlook for the 2026 harvest," said Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon.
John Ramaker
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