Milk and meat will become cheaper in 2026

Agricultural production will decline next year, both in livestock farming and arable farming, Rabobank states in its latest sector forecast. Starting next year, agriculture will experience a structural decline due to buyback programs and lower production, according to Rabobank. The bank expects the added value for the sector to decline by 2026. Meat, milk, and eggs are expected to become significantly cheaper, while the price of plant-based products will rise in line with inflation.

This year, total agricultural and horticultural production is expected to rise slightly (+0,2%). This is mainly due to higher yields of potatoes, sugar beets, and grains thanks to favorable weather conditions. Rabobank had expected milk production to decline earlier this year, but it remained virtually stable. Horticultural production also remained stable.

The bank expects added value in agriculture and horticulture to grow by 1,8% in 2025. The previous forecast predicted smaller growth. Production in both livestock farming and arable farming will decline next year. For 2026, the bank anticipates a 3,2% decline in added value for the sector. This is based on constant prices. "For 2026, we expect a more significant decline in added value in nominal terms, by over 9%," the bank states. This is due to the expected price declines for meat, milk, and eggs. The forecast for plant-based products is that they will rise approximately in line with inflation.

Due to the buyout schemes, the livestock farming complex is estimated to shrink by around 5% next year. Furthermore, lower production is expected for sugar beets (-6,6%), potatoes (-1%), and grains (-2%) based on cropping plan adjustments and average yields per hectare.

For the Dutch economy as a whole, Rabobank expects growth of 1,7% this year and 1,3% in 2026 and 2027.

Linda van Eekeres

Linda van Eekeres is co-writing editor-in-chief. She mainly focuses on macro-economic developments and the influence of politics on the agricultural sector.

l.vaneekeres@boerenbusiness. Nl

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