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Negative cash flow for a large part of arable farms
Of all agricultural and horticultural sectors, arable farms will have the smallest percentage of farms with a positive cash flow in 2025. This is evident from new figures from Wageningen University & Research (WUR), which the institute released during the presentation of the income forecast.
55% of arable farms have a positive cash flow, compared to 76% for agriculture and horticulture as a whole. For 45% of arable farms, income is therefore insufficient to meet payment obligations (including repayments).
For the vast majority, reducing maintenance, cutting back on personal expenses, or using savings offers a solution. Five percent of businesses also need to defer repayments. For 3 percent of the total, this isn't enough, and more significant adjustments are necessary.
According to Bert Smit, arable farming sector expert at Wageningen University & Research, 2025 was characterized by "fantastic production, with pricing as an anticlimax." "It's been a real disaster for potatoes," he says. Free-range potatoes are often being used as feed, and grain and sugar prices are also very low. Seed potato prices have also fallen. Onion prices are an exception, and it's hoped that will continue, Smit adds.
Arable farming income has fallen sharply, by €24.000 to €60.000 per unpaid annual labor unit (a worker working 2.000 hours or more per year). It is estimated that 20% of farms have a negative income of -€20.000 or more. Starch potato farms are an exception, where the average income has increased by €16.000 to €116.000.
2022 was an exceptional year, with an average income of €151.500. Considering the work performed, the 2025 average isn't a very high income, according to WUR sector expert Mark Manshanden. He explains that for a larger group, incomes are more likely to be below than above average. Small businesses, in particular, are struggling, he says. "And the tax assessment is also coming in, and that covers years where things were going very well, so it will be quite high."
Profitability of arable farming down
Arable farming profitability for the 2025 harvest year is estimated at 91%, which is 7 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 13 percentage points lower than the average for the period 2020 to 2024.
According to the WUR, the net operating result for the average arable farm will be €40.200 in the red in 2025. Last year, it was -€7.900, while in previous years there were positive results of €34.500 (2023) and €79.200 (2022). In this calculation, hours worked are valued at the collective labor agreement hourly rate, including employer contributions. Interest is calculated on the capital (both debt and equity) (so the actual interest paid by the farms is not included).
The Agricultural Confidence Index is also falling sharply. In the last survey in the third quarter of this year, arable farmers were more negative about their economic situation for the medium term (two to three years) than a quarter earlier. The index is at -20 points, while the average for arable farming since 2013 has been -3.
Disaster year apotatoes
As mentioned, it's been a disastrous year for potatoes. It seemed like the European French fry processing industry was in a state of flux, and one after another announced plans to expand their lines. The thinking was that this year would be a demand market, but sales proved difficult, despite the fact that a combination of acreage expansion and good yields resulted in a much higher potato production.
Manshanden points out that China and India, in particular, are emerging as French fry producers. "Sales outside Europe are very limited. They were already limited, but the expectation was that we would increasingly export and sell more, and that has been a bit of a disappointment."
WUR doesn't have a clear picture of the income difference between contract growers and those with free potatoes, but it's undeniable that it's making a significant difference to potato growers' incomes this harvest year. Manshanden indicates that a lot of potatoes were under contract this year, "about 80% of the hectares, because of the good contract prices." "The higher the yield, the more is outside the contract price, so ultimately, about 56% of the potatoes were sold at contract prices, and the rest are all sold at free prices."
"We look at the average, and the contract price also plays a significant role, at 56%. But the rest goes for €3 or €4. If you, as a farmer, have to sell off completely freely, then you're really going to have a very tough year," says Manshanden.
The arable farming export sector believes demand for potatoes will continue to rise and global production can continue to grow. "But there will simply be much more competition abroad." Manshanden doesn't foresee a late-season recovery. "It's quite possible that sales will improve slightly at the very end of the season and prices will rise slightly. But I wouldn't expect it to improve significantly, because there are simply so many potatoes."
Little improvement expected next year
Smit also has a rather hopeful outlook for 2026: "Little improvement is expected for next year. Sugar and grain stocks are simply high." Cosun has reduced the allocation percentage for sugar beets by 10%. FarmFrites is already trying to break into existing potato contracts, so new ones won't be as good either, Smit indicates. Another concern is the rise of the glasswing cicadas which, according to him, causes enormous yield drops in sugar beets, grains and potatoes in southern Germany and the first attacks of which have been found in the Netherlands.
Linda van Eekeres
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